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The lease payment is only the tip of the iceberg. When companies renew their fleets, the conversation still starts with the monthly rate, yet fuel, taxation, depreciation, downtime and underused vehicles quietly reshape the real bill, often years after the contract is signed.

With fleets electrifying, hybrid working changing travel patterns and only 27% of Italian companies fully monitoring their connected vehicles, the question is no longer “how much does this car cost?” but “what does mobility actually cost the company?”

In this position paper, we uncover the hidden components of Total Cost of Ownership, explain why fleet management is evolving into mobility management, and share a practical four-step roadmap to make mobility costs visible, measurable and actionable.

3b:Tdfe,

Turning Climate Risk into a Driver of Strategic Decision-Making

Long viewed primarily as a regulatory compliance exercise, climate stress testing is becoming a core tool for risk management, capital allocation, and transition planning across the financial sector.

As physical and transition risks intensify, banks, insurers, and asset managers must move beyond a compliance-driven approach. The challenge is no longer simply to quantify the potential consequences of adverse climate scenarios, but to translate those insights into actionable decisions that strengthen portfolio resilience, inform strategic choices, and support the evolution of business models.

Achieving this requires addressing several critical challenges: data quality and granularity, model robustness, alignment with prudential requirements, and, above all, the ability to turn stress-testing results into operational decisions.

Six Pillars for Turning Climate Stress Testing into a Strategic Management Tool

In this position paper, TNP Trust experts outline an integrated approach built around six complementary pillars:

Governance and strategic ambition: Embed climate risk into enterprise-wide governance and risk appetite frameworks.

Regulatory compliance:Translate supervisory expectations into robust, proportionate, and actionable operating processes.

Data reliability: Improve the quality, granularity, and traceability of climate-related data.

Financial impact modeling: Translate climate scenarios into meaningful, decision-ready financial risk metrics.

Transition management: Connect stress-testing outcomes to investment decisions, capital allocation, and transition plans.

Organizational transformation: Align Risk, Finance, Sustainability, and business teams around a shared understanding of climate-related challenges.

From Risk Measurement to Strategic Value Creation

The true measure of a mature climate stress-testing framework is not the sophistication of its models, but its ability to inform better decisions.

By combining regulatory expertise, data management, financial modeling, and organizational transformation capabilities, TNP advances a clear conviction: climate stress testing must become an integral part of how financial institutions manage risk and make strategic decisions, not a standalone regulatory exercise.

Connect with Our Experts

TNP Trust helps financial institutions design, implement, and scale their climate risk management frameworks. To learn more, get in touch with our experts.

Download our position paper now by completing the form. Enjoy the read!

3c:T359b,

In the United States, the anti-ESG backlash has led to the dismantling of major banking alliances on climate. In France, the shift has been less conspicuous: environmental commitments are fading from institutional messaging but remain embedded in customer offerings and risk management. ESG is not disappearing. It is moving to a different arena, where demands for evidence are becoming more stringent.

In 2015, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned of the “tragedy of the horizon.” His point was simple: climate change will inflict damage beyond the time horizon of financial decision-making, leaving few market participants with a short-term incentive to pay today for risks that will materialize tomorrow.

Six years later, together with the UK presidency of COP26, he launched the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, designed to coordinate financial-sector initiatives in support of carbon neutrality. That same day, 43 banks created the Net-Zero Banking Alliance under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative. The NZBA became one of the coalition’s founding members and eventually brought together nearly 150 institutions. On October 3, 2025, following a vote by its members, the alliance announced that it would cease operations.

Many saw the move as evidence that banks were abandoning ESG. In France, the picture is more nuanced: ESG remains, but it is now directed more toward customers than investors.

A break with the past, driven by the United States

Since 2021, several conservative U.S. states have imposed penalties on banks deemed hostile to the oil and gas industry. Banks belonging to climate alliances have been among the primary targets, facing measures ranging from placement on “blacklists” to the loss of public pension fund management mandates and exclusion from certain municipal contracts. Voluntary commitments once viewed as a reputational asset have thus become a competitive disadvantage in parts of the U.S. market.

The federal government subsequently changed course as well. The SEC, the U.S. counterpart to France’s Autorité des marchés financiers, stopped defending in court the climate disclosure rules adopted the previous year. In May 2026, it proposed rescinding them entirely.

The result: all six of the largest U.S. banks left the Net-Zero Banking Alliance between December 2024 and January 2025, shortly before Donald Trump’s second inauguration. Several Canadian and Japanese banks followed, as did HSBC and Barclays.

French banks stay the course, but go their separate ways

France’s six largest banking groups were also members of the alliance. Yet while HSBC pushed back its net-zero target for its own operations by 20 years and Wells Fargo dropped its financed-emissions targets, the French Banking Federation told Agence France-Presse that the end of the NZBA’s activities would not change its members’ approach. Their commitments remain in place, but the collective framework that gave them visibility and made it possible to compare their trajectories has disappeared.

This lower profile may reflect greenhushing: some institutions continue to pursue climate policies while communicating less about them in an effort to reduce reputational and litigation risks. But reduced communication alone is not enough to conclude that commitments remain unchanged. Those commitments need to be assessed against sector policies, published targets, and actual financing flows.

Industry figures point in the same direction. According to the French Banking Federation, green and sustainable lending by French banks reached €510 billion in 2025, up 37% in two years. That aggregate figure, however, does not provide a complete picture of their portfolios.

The *Banking on Climate Chaos* report, published in June 2026 by eight NGOs including Reclaim Finance, paints a more mixed picture. While global fossil-fuel financing rose again in 2025, French banks reduced their financing of companies developing new fossil-fuel projects, with Société Générale a notable exception. Most, however, increased their financing of gas pipelines and LNG terminals.

In customer relationships, ESG remains a selling point

Even as ESG recedes from institutional messaging, it remains highly visible in consumer marketing. Sustainable-branded savings accounts and funds, “impact” savings products, carbon-footprint features in mobile banking apps, and cards made from recycled materials all illustrate the growing role of environmental claims in customer relationships.

Our 2026 TNP Sustainable Finance Benchmark shows growth in green offerings across mortgages, consumer lending, savings, and payment products. The range is broadest in savings: by 2026, 1,045 funds had received France’s ISR sustainable investment label under its new standards, representing an estimated €800 billion in assets under management.

Regulators are closely monitoring these practices, and their findings have been critical. As early as 2022, France’s Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority, or ACPR, identified vague or misleading environmental claims in life-insurance advertising and subsequently issued recommendations governing their use. In February 2026, the AMF similarly found that distribution networks selling sustainable funds still had an imperfect grasp of the rules governing such claims and relied heavily on the asset managers that design the products.

Overall, banks communicate less about their financing portfolios than about their savings products. In the first case, disclosure exposes them to NGO criticism and litigation risk. In the second, ESG serves as a sales proposition—albeit under increasingly close regulatory scrutiny.

Obligations are replacing ESG promises

Several regulatory developments are reshaping this balance. The “Omnibus” directive, which took effect in March 2026, substantially reduces disclosure requirements. At the same time, the European Banking Authority’s guidelines on climate-risk management have applied since January 2026 to institutions other than small and non-complex institutions, which have been granted additional time to comply. For the banks concerned, the challenge is becoming less about issuing more statements and more about identifying exposed assets, measuring risks, and assessing them over an appropriate time horizon.

Meanwhile, scrutiny of environmental marketing claims is intensifying. Beginning September 27, 2026, the EU directive known as EmpCo will prohibit certain generic environmental claims as well as carbon-neutrality claims based solely on offsetting emissions.

The collective framework provided by the climate banking alliance therefore unraveled just as regulatory constraints were changing in nature: fewer companies are required to publish detailed information, but banks must integrate ESG risks more thoroughly and provide stronger substantiation for their commercial claims.

In an op-ed published by Le Monde in May 2026, management researcher Jean-Pierre Bouchez argued that regulatory and judicial pressure, far more than voluntary commitments, can provide an answer to the tragedy of the horizon described by Mark Carney.

For banks, then, the challenge is no longer simply to make climate commitments. It is to demonstrate consistency among the products they offer customers, the risks they incorporate into financing decisions, and the information actually available about their portfolios.

Sources

Mark Carney, speech at Lloyd’s of London, September 29, 2015.

Dissolution of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, AFP dispatch, October 3, 2025, including the response from the French Banking Federation.

U.S. banks’ withdrawals from the alliance, *Reuters* (December 2024) and the *Financial Times* (January 2025).

Pew Charitable Trusts and Thomson Reuters, on anti-ESG legislation in U.S. states.

SEC, announcement on ending the climate disclosure rule, March 2025.

HSBC, postponement of its operational net-zero target (February 2025) and revision of its fossil-fuel policy framework (November 2025).

Wells Fargo, withdrawal of its financed-emissions targets, March 2025.

French Banking Federation, annual study on financing the ecological transition, May 21, 2026.

Banking on Climate Chaos*, 2026 edition, published by eight NGOs including Reclaim Finance.

TNP Sustainable Finance Benchmark 2026.

French Ministry of the Economy, overview of the ISR label; AEF Info, mapping of labeled funds, February 2026.

ACPR, recommendation on the promotion of non-financial characteristics in life insurance.

AMF, findings from its supervisory reviews of sustainable finance practices, February 2026.

Directive (EU) 2026/470, known as “Omnibus I,” in force since March 18, 2026.

Directive (EU) 2024/825, known as “EmpCo,” applicable from September 27, 2026.

European Banking Authority, guidelines on ESG risks, applicable since January 2026.

Jean-Pierre Bouchez, “Finance: The Tragedy of the Horizon Highlights the Tension Between the Short and Long Term,” op-ed, *Le Monde*, May 15, 2026.

3d:T26ac,

From passive resilience to decisive action: why the next 90 days will define competitive positioning in the GCC

In a context shaped by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and prolonged uncertainty, companies operating in the Gulf face a dangerous illusion: macroeconomic stability as a shield. During this webinar, TNP leaders delivered a clear message: waiting is no longer a neutral stance, but the riskiest one. Between margin pressure, structural dependencies, and execution gaps, the ability to make fast, targeted decisions is emerging as the key differentiator. The coming weeks will not simply test resilience, they will determine who captures the next wave of growth.

“The most common posture in organization right now, it’s some version of wait and see… we think that posture is a trap.”

Moving beyond the illusion of stability toward decisive strategic action

The opening argument challenges a widely shared instinct: caution. Many organizations are adopting a “wait and see” posture, perceived as prudent but, in reality, increasingly dangerous. In the GCC, this inertia is amplified by a structural bias: the presence of sovereign wealth and strong national balance sheets creates a sense of macro stability. As Benoit Ranini points out, “leadership teams start to confuse national resilience with corporate resilience.” Yet, this perceived safety net does not protect margins, revenue models, or cost structures. The strategic tension is stark: absorb the shock or actively reposition. Companies that will emerge stronger are not those that endure best, but those that move fastest. This requires a shift in management logic, away from outdated annual budgets toward new metrics, such as speed of reallocation. The real differentiator is no longer resilience itself, but the ability to pivot under pressure.

“Protect what you still have right now. Not recover, not rebuild, but protect.”

Redirecting commercial efforts toward resilient and growing revenue pools

The second imperative reframes commercial strategy with urgency and precision. The objective is not recovery, but protection and redeployment. Revenue streams tied to international flows (tourism, cross-border services) remain structurally constrained and slow to rebound. However, not all markets are equally affected. As highlighted during the session, “domestic B2B spending is structurally protected,” while certain regional corridors, particularly with South Asia, are outperforming expectations. The strategic implication is immediate: reallocate commercial resources toward segments that are active today. This may involve repackaging offerings for domestic clients or redirecting sales teams to regional opportunities. The tension lies in abandoning familiar markets in favor of less traditional, but more accessible, growth drivers. Organizations that act now can secure short-term revenue while competitors remain focused on eventual recovery.

Download the presentation

“Cutting costs and building flexibility are two completely different exercises.”

Shifting from cost reduction to structural adaptability

In an environment where cost pressures are persistent rather than temporary, driven by logistics disruptions, energy volatility, and trade friction, the traditional response of cost-cutting proves insufficient. “Cutting protects your cash flow today. Flexibility gives you the ability to adapt,” Julien Benitah emphasizes. The challenge is to transform fixed cost structures into variable ones, enabling organizations to absorb ongoing volatility. Practical levers include renegotiating contracts with flexibility clauses, adopting modular resource models, and revisiting logistics arrangements. The strategic trade-off is clear: immediate savings versus long-term adaptability. Timing is critical: negotiating from a position of strength today, rather than under pressure tomorrow. For CFOs, the framework is actionable: identify fixed commitments and assess whether they can be restructured within 90 days. This exercise becomes a cornerstone of financial resilience.

“What was optimized for a stable world has become a liability in an unstable one.”

Reducing critical dependencies to mitigate systemic risk exposure

The current crisis exposes a fundamental vulnerability: over-concentration. Strategies designed for efficiency (centralized logistics, single-source suppliers, concentrated cloud infrastructure) now represent structural risks. “If you have no viable alternative… you don’t have a logistic strategy. You have a bet.” This applies equally to physical and digital infrastructures. For instance, concentrating critical workloads in a single cloud region creates exposure comparable to relying on a single shipping route. The tension here is between efficiency and resilience. Diversification comes at a cost, but failing to diversify increases exposure to disruption. An often-overlooked dimension is insurance: many business interruption policies exclude force majeure or cyber events, leaving companies financially exposed. The implication is clear: resilience must be engineered, not assumed.

“Every in-flight transformation initiative belongs in one of these three buckets: accelerate, reframe, or stop.”

Reallocating transformation capital to high-impact priorities

With constrained resources and shifting priorities, transformation portfolios require rigorous reassessment. The proposed framework (accelerate, reframe, or stop) forces decisive action. Initiatives aligned with current needs (operational autonomy, digital capabilities, supply chain resilience) should be accelerated. Those still relevant but based on outdated assumptions must be redesigned. Others, lacking strategic value in the current context, should be discontinued. As noted, “the cost of continuing a program with logic no longer holds is not zero.” This is not merely a financial issue: it is about management attention and execution capacity. The tension is internal: overcoming organizational inertia and vested interests to reallocate resources effectively. This triage becomes a defining test of leadership discipline.

“The standard corporate risk framework were not built to manage the crisis you are facing.”

Embedding extreme risk management into corporate governance

The final shift concerns the nature of risk management itself. Existing frameworks are designed for volatility, not rupture. “Risk committees assess probability. They don’t war game rupture scenario.” The proposed approach introduces practices from military environments: scenario simulations, real-time intelligence, and pre-authorized response plans. A concrete example was shared from the automotive sector, where war rooms were deployed to manage supplier risk in real time. This represents a profound shift, from reactive crisis management to proactive scenario planning. The organizational challenge is significant: integrating these capabilities into governance structures traditionally built for stability. This includes the emergence of a Chief Risk Officer with a comprehensive, cross-functional mandate. The objective is clear: anticipate disruptions and act before they escalate.

Watch the replay now

TNP expands its presence in the Gulf with new offices in Riyadh and Bahrain

TNP Consultants continues its international growth with the opening of offices in Riyadh and Manama, strengthening its footprint across the GCC alongside its existing presence in Dubai.

Now fully operational in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, TNP enhances its proximity to clients and its ability to deliver large-scale transformation programs on the ground.

This expansion comes amid a period of rapid economic transformation in the region, driven by initiatives such as Saudi Vision 2030 and Bahrain Economic Vision 2030. TNP aims to support both public and private sector players with its expertise in transformation, regulatory environments, and technology solutions, while continuing to build its local teams.

3e:T7bd,

TNP had the pleasure of attending the Dubai Fintech Summit 2024, a pivotal meeting that brought together leading technology companies and financial institutions to discuss the future of finance. The lessons learned from this summit were instrumental in identifying the key levers for efficiency and transformation, particularly in the investment banking sector.

Have you ever wondered how the tech industry shapes your everyday transactions, like paying for your morning coffee? The payments sector is rapidly evolving thanks to advanced technologies and changing demands. This transformation is crucial for corporate and investment banking (CIB), aiming to enhance transaction efficiency, security, and speed.

Discover how innovations like the SWIFT GPI service are revolutionizing cross-border payments with near-instant transactions and full transparency. Dive into the world of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and see how they could transform money markets while addressing environmental challenges.

Explore the impact of blockchain and cryptocurrencies on loan syndication, secure payments with stablecoins like Circle’s USDC, and cryptocurrency regulation in Europe with the MiCA framework. Learn how giants like Ant Financial and RippleNet are innovating in B2B mobile payments and international transactions.

To learn more about these exciting transformations and understand how they are redefining the financial sector, download our full position paper. Discover how these technologies can offer tangible benefits to businesses and consumers, enhancing banks’ competitiveness and enriching the customer experience.

Download the position paper now. Enjoy your reading!

3f:T1630,

Our TNP India team has secured the top position at the Stellantis ICT Data Analytics Data Hackathon 2025, held as the finale of the two-day Snowcamp 2025 event. In a highly competitive environment that brought together over 150 participants, our team’s idea, StellInsights, stood out as the winning solution, recognized for its innovative approach to utilizing data for transformation.

This achievement is a clear validation of the technical excellence, collaborative spirit, and strategic foresight embedded within our team.

The success of StellInsights highlights our leadership in Data Analytics and our ability to deliver high-impact, real-world solutions.

Congratulations once again to the entire TNP team!

Your success reinforces our position at the forefront of innovation.

What is StellInsights?

StellInsights is an AI-based chat assistant that revolutionizes how Stellantis interacts with its data.

Function: It allows users to query and analyze both structured (database tables) and unstructured (documents, text) data using Natural Language.
Technology: The solution is powered by Cortex AI on the Snowflake platform, enabling powerful conversational interaction without needing to write complex code.

In short, StellInsights makes data accessible and actionable to everyone simply by asking a question, driving meaningful transformation at Stellantis.

40:T633,

Why should performance be at the center of cost management?
Too often, purchasing decisions are driven by price or Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). While these metrics matter, they overlook a critical dimension: asset availability. Every hour of downtime can generate losses that far exceed maintenance savings through missed operations, dissatisfied customers, and even contractual penalties.

This position paper addresses a common blind spot: Finance and Procurement frequently operate in silos, each optimizing part of the problem without securing overall performance. The real shift lies in moving from “buying a product or service” to “buying its ability to create value.”

Inside, you’ll explore:

Why TCO alone is not enough and how to factor revenue contribution into decisions
The essential KPIs for performance management: availability rate, MTBF, MTTR, and cost of downtime
Practical levers for performance-based contracting, including SLAs, bonus-malus systems, and RAM reporting
A governance model that unites Finance and Procurement to align costs, performance, and value creation

Download the full position paper to discover how availability can become a strategic advantage and why performance should be the cornerstone of your procurement strategy.

41:T716,

Reverse logistics has become one of the defining challenges and opportunities of modern supply chains. As e-commerce volumes continue to rise, businesses are facing unprecedented levels of product returns, increasing operational complexity, and growing pressure to improve both customer experience and sustainability performance.

In this context, returns management can no longer be treated as a back-office operational issue. Leading organizations are transforming reverse logistics into a strategic capability that drives efficiency, customer loyalty, regulatory compliance, and value recovery across the supply chain.

In Backwards Flow, Forward Thinking, TNP explores how companies across industries are redesigning their reverse logistics networks through data-driven decision-making, automation, AI-enabled processes, and integrated supply chain planning. The paper highlights the scale of the challenge, the technologies reshaping the sector, and the competitive advantage gained by organizations that proactively rethink how value flows backwards through their networks.

As regulatory requirements tighten and customer expectations continue to evolve, the ability to optimize reverse logistics is quickly becoming a critical differentiator for long-term performance and resilience.

Download the position paper to gain a clear, strategic perspective on challenges and opportunities for reverse logistics of modern supply chains.

42:T1804,

A strategic alliance built on complementary expertise and a shared vision of high-impact consulting.

Levallois-Perret, November 12, 2025 — TNP Consultants and Pixis Conseil today announced a strategic alliance that brings together two leading players in the consulting space, forming a new powerhouse in the retail, luxury, and consumer goods sectors.

This partnership combines Pixis Conseil’s deep sector, strategy, and operational expertise with TNP’s integrated transformation capabilities. The result: a comprehensive consulting model that spans every facet of transformation—from strategy and customer experience to AI—delivered within a secure, compliant, and innovation-driven framework.

A Natural Alliance, Rooted in Results

Founded in 2005, Pixis Conseil has earned a reputation as a trusted advisor to major French and European brands through its 360-degree approach to transformation—covering strategy, offering, customer engagement, supply chain, digital, and omnichannel execution.

“This partnership reflects our ambition to enrich our multi-specialist model with highly targeted expertise,” says Benoit Ranini, President and Co-Founder of TNP. “Together, we can deliver concrete, high-impact, and executable solutions to our clients in retail, luxury, and consumer goods.”

Damien Ferraro, Partner at TNP Strategy, adds: “The Pixis team shares our conviction that strategy only matters if it’s executed swiftly and effectively in the field. Their business-specific expertise perfectly complements our end-to-end transformation capabilities.”

Meeting the New Challenges of Commerce and Consumption

Retailers and consumer goods players are facing a period of radical change: fast-evolving customer behavior, growing demand for purpose and transparency, rising sustainability expectations, and the rise of omnichannel models. The TNP–Pixis alliance is designed to help brands act on five key transformation levers:

Adapting legacy models to today’s consumer expectations
Leveraging data and AI to optimize offers and operations
Strengthening supply chain resilience amid cost, timing, and environmental constraints
Rethinking customer journeys for a seamless, personalized, and responsible experience
Accelerating digital and regulatory transformation through secure, compliant solutions

“This move opens up new opportunities for both our teams and our clients,” says Noria Cung,President of Pixis Conseil. “It allows us to scale our proven expertise while staying true to our DNA: blending vision, pragmatism, and close client relationships.”

Christophe Lahay, Managing Director of Pixis Conseil, adds: “Together, we can strengthen the alignment between strategic vision, operational excellence, and responsible innovation.”

A Thoughtful Integration, Respecting Identity and Continuity

The Pixis brand will be maintained to ensure continuity across current engagements and to build on the trust developed with its long-standing clients and ecosystem.

About TNP Consultants

TNP Strategy | TNP Trust | TNP Digital

Since 2007, TNP has supported hundreds of companies, governments, and investment funds in designing and implementing their strategic, regulatory, and digital transformations—with the commitment of a trusted long-term partner.

At TNP, we harness the unpredictable—turning uncertainty into a driving force for tangible results and lasting performance.

Built around three centers of excellence—TNP Strategy, TNP Trust, and TNP Digital—we offer a comprehensive approach that addresses today’s and tomorrow’s challenges, from strategy to AI, within secure, compliant, and innovative frameworks.

With a presence in Europe, Africa, India, the Middle East, and the United States, TNP supports its clients wherever challenges are most demanding, delivering high-value, high-impact consulting every step of the way.

Learn more: www.tnpconsultants.com

About Pixis Conseil

Founded in 2005, Pixis Conseil is a French consulting firm specializing in the retail and luxury sectors. The firm supports its clients across every stage of their transformation and growth initiatives—from strategic planning to project execution.

Pixis is committed to delivering high-quality service, with a strong emphasis on innovation and tailored solutions that address each client’s unique challenges.

Website: www.pixis-conseil.com

43:T67b,

Why should performance be at the center of cost management?

Too often, purchasing decisions are driven by price or Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). While these metrics matter, they overlook a critical dimension: asset availability. Every hour of downtime can generate losses that far exceed maintenance savings through missed operations, dissatisfied customers, and even contractual penalties.

Inside, you’ll explore:

Why TCO alone is not enough and how to factor revenue contribution into decisions
The essential KPIs for performance management: availability rate, MTBF, MTTR, and cost of downtime
Practical levers for performance-based contracting, including SLAs, bonus-malus systems, and RAM reporting
A governance model that unites Finance and Procurement to align costs, performance, and value creation

Download the full position paper to discover how availability can become a strategic advantage and why performance should be the cornerstone of your procurement strategy.

44:T56a,

Anticipating the Unpredictable: Mastering Inventory Management in Times of Uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions, shifting consumer behaviors, and pressure on supply chains are redefining the retail landscape in 2025. In this environment, inventory management is no longer a simple operational task; it has become a strategic lever to secure growth and maintain competitiveness.

Our latest position paper explores the key challenges retailers face and provides actionable strategies to turn uncertainty into opportunity. Inside, you will find:

The major trends shaping retail in the months ahead
Two strategic approaches: playing defense or taking calculated risks
Key levers for building flexible and resilient supply chains
The critical role of technology and data-driven decision-making

In today’s volatile landscape, the ability to anticipate and adapt has become a critical driver of success.
Download our position paper now and discover how to transform complexity into a competitive advantage.

45:Ta19,

The 9th MaRisk Amendment, published by BaFin on June 30, 2026, streamlines and modernizes the regulatory framework while incorporating developments from the European supervisory framework.

Rather than fundamentally redefining risk management, the amendment represents a consistent evolution of existing requirements.

Financial institutions are required to implement the additional requirements arising from the new framework by January 1, 2027. This date should not be seen as an endpoint, but rather as a milestone marking the beginning of a continuous development process that institutions can shape according to their individual circumstances, while ensuring that their approach remains transparent, well-governed and demonstrably appropriate.

In this paper, our experts take a closer look at the key changes introduced by the 9th MaRisk Amendment and examine what they mean for financial institutions.

Key topics addressed in our paper:

More flexibility, more responsibility: The strengthened proportionality principle and increased focus on principles-based regulation create new opportunities and new requirements for governance, decision-making and documentation.
ESG becomes more deeply embedded: The amendment further integrates ESG risks into established risk management processes and introduces new requirements for long-term environmental resilience analysis.
A changing supervisory focus: The 9th MaRisk Amendment shapes supervisory expectations and the way institutions approach regulatory implementation.
From regulatory requirements to practical implementation: Institutions should address key areas to translate the new requirements into sustainable, proportionate and audit-ready processes.

Want to understand what the 9th MaRisk Amendment means for your institution and where the most relevant implementation challenges lie?

Donwload and explore our German-language paper to understand the key changes, practical implications and actions institutions should consider now.

46:T93e,

The CSRD has been redrawn, but the ESG conversation isn’t over. Omnibus I raises size thresholds, pushes back deadlines and simplifies reporting standards, taking many companies out of mandatory scope.

Being out of scope, though, doesn’t mean being out of the game: those still covered face concrete deadlines, and those now exempt will likely meet ESG requirements through customers, banks and business partners.

This paper covers what has changed, who is still affected, and the first moves to make now.

For many companies, the Omnibus I Package came as welcome relief. With higher thresholds, extended timelines and leaner reporting standards, the regulatory pressure of the CSRD has eased almost overnight. It would be a mistake, however, to treat this as the end of the story.

Companies that remain in scope still face clear deadlines, and the clock is running. Those that fall outside it will probably find that ESG expectations reach them in other ways: through a key customer asking for supply-chain data, a bank assessing sustainability risk before granting credit, or a business partner setting its own requirements.

The obligation may no longer come from regulation, but the need to provide answers remains.

In this article, we explain what has actually changed, who is still affected either directly or indirectly, and which practical first steps companies should take over the coming months to stay ahead instead of catching up.

Download our position paper now and discover what Omnibus I really changes for the CSRD, who is still affected, and the first steps to take today to stay ahead on ESG.

47:T48a,

Automation has become one of the defining forces of modern business. Companies across industries are under pressure to reduce repetitive work, improve efficiency, lower costs, and free employees to focus on higher-value activities.

In that context, two terms appear again and again:  Robotic Process Automation (RPA)  and  AI automation. They are often mentioned together, but they solve different problems and create value in different ways.

Many organizations still blur the distinction. Some expect RPA to “think” like AI, while others apply AI to tasks that could be automated more quickly, more reliably, and at a lower cost with a simple rule-based workflow.

Download the position paper to gain a clear, strategic perspective on the difference between RPA and AI automation.

48:T12fd,

Context engineering means structuring data, tools, and runtime state so an AI agent can reason and act reliably, not just so a human can read a chart.

We spent the last decade perfecting the modern data stack for one primary consumer: a human looking at a screen.

We built star schemas so dashboards wouldn’t choke, denormalized tables so execs could slice revenue by region, and set up dbt runs to deliver neat metrics by 8 AM.

Then autonomous AI agents entered the room, and the entire downstream architecture broke.

This shift has a name: context engineering- structuring data, tools, and runtime state so an AI agent can reason and act reliably, not just so a human can read a chart.

An AI agent doesn’t look at a heatmap, and it doesn’t care about a pivot table. It needs actionable execution context: exact runtime state, clear tool definitions, and tightly bounded parameters so it doesn’t hallucinate an API call and wreck production.

Dimension	Dashboard Era (BI)	AI Agent Era (Context Engineering)
Primary consumer	Human	AI agent on behalf of a human
Human’s role	Scans and interprets visual trends	Asks questions, provides goals, and evaluates/acts on results
Data format	Human-readable: dashboards, charts, tables	Machine/agent-friendly: structured, compact, contextual payloads
Core task	Human interprets the data	Agent interprets context, resolves ambiguity, and invokes tools
Optimization	Optimize for visual comprehension	Optimize for accurate reasoning and action

What changes when designing for agentic AI systems:

Token economy replaces query speed. In BI, a wide table with 80 columns is cheap. In an agent workflow, shoving redundant data into a prompt burns budget and degrades model reasoning. Context must be high-signal, compact, and structured.

Metadata isn’t documentation anymore; it’s runtime code. Schema definitions, valid enum ranges, and foreign keys used to live quietly in a catalog. Now, they are the active control plane fed directly into the model at inference time. If your metadata is sloppy, the agent fails.

Deterministic tools beat open Text-to-SQL. Giving an LLM open access to write ad-hoc warehouse queries is fragile for production workflows. Agents thrive on strongly typed, deterministic APIs layered on top of curated data models.

Pipelines are now a two-way street. Analytics used to be a one-directional pipeline (Source ➔ Warehouse ➔ BI). In agentic workflows, agents read context, make decisions, execute actions, and emit new state that has to flow immediately back into the operational loop.

The hardest part of AI engineering right now isn’t the model; it’s the plumbing.

If your data pipeline still stops at a “gold” reporting table, it’s time to start building the context and tool layer for your AI agents.

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Unifying Sales, Service, and Operations for the Next Era of Supply Chain Excellence.

India’s logistics industry is scaling rapidly, but fragmented systems, manual processes, and rising customer expectations continue to create challenges across sales, service, and operations.

This whitepaper explores the Logistics Control Tower model, a unified layer connecting customer context, shipment milestones, partner data, exceptions, and workflows to enable real-time supply chain visibility, proactive decision-making, and intelligent execution as part of broader supply chain transformation.

The whitepaper provides insights into:

Freight Forwarding: Building a real-time quoting engine for faster, more responsive sales.

Contract Logistics & 3PL: Scaling service operations through self-service visibility and AI-powered support.

Ocean & Air Logistics: Moving from reactive disruption management to real-time visibility and predictive intelligence.

ERP to 4PL Orchestration: Bridging ERP execution with customer experience, intelligence, and orchestration.

The TNP Blueprint: A practical approach to assessing the current state, unifying core systems, and enabling real-time orchestration.

Download the whitepaper to explore how logistics operators can move from fragmented execution to a more connected, intelligent, and scalable operating model.

DOWNLOAD THE WHITEPAPER →

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India is emerging as one of the most dynamic and complex growth markets for the global luxury industry. Rising affluence, a fast-expanding middle and upper class, and growing international interest are reshaping the market, while regulatory and operational complexity continues to demand a highly strategic approach.

TNP analyze the key forces driving India’s luxury market and the implications for international brands seeking to enter or scale their presence. Building on market insights and on-the-ground experience, the paper offers a structured perspective on how luxury players can navigate complexity and pursue sustainable, long-term growth.

The paper provides insights into:

The main growth drivers shaping India’s luxury market
Evolving consumer behaviors and retail dynamics
Key challenges for international luxury brands entering India
Strategic implications for market entry and expansion
How our Italian and Indian offices can support brands along their international expansion journey

Download the position paper to gain a clear, strategic perspective on India’s luxury opportunity.

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The European Commission put forward a sweeping overhaul of the SFDR (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation). This evolution, known as SFDR 2.0, marks a turning point in the regulation of sustainable finance in Europe.

After structuring ESG transparency since 2021, the current framework is now showing its limits: inconsistent practices, complexity for investors, and growing criticism around greenwashing.

With SFDR 2.0, the European Union is shifting its approach. The goal is no longer simply to govern transparency, but to clarify, harmonize, and strengthen the credibility of sustainable financial products.

The stakes are significant: moving from declared sustainability to demonstrable sustainability.

This position paper provides a clear, practical reading of the SFDR 2.0 reform and its concrete implications. You will find:

an analysis of the structural limitations of SFDR 1.0
a breakdown of the new categories of sustainable products
insight into the major regulatory developments
an assessment of the operational impacts for financial institutions
practical guidance on turning regulatory constraints into strategic advantage

For asset managers, banks, and insurers, SFDR 2.0 entails far more than compliance.

The reform will require a redesign of ESG methodologies, a transformation of data infrastructures, and increased operational pressure.

But it also creates an opportunity for strategic differentiation. Firms that anticipate the reform can strengthen their positioning and capture investor trust.

Download the position paper now.

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The European Commission has introduced the Financial Data Access (FIDA) regulation to govern the sharing and accessibility of financial data across the European Union. This initiative represents a pivotal step in building a more open, innovative, and competitive open finance ecosystem.

Following the structuring of open banking under PSD2, the current framework is now showing its limits: fragmented use cases, a restricted scope of accessible data, and rising customer expectations for more personalized financial services.

With FIDA, the European Union is shifting gears. The goal is no longer limited to opening access to payment accounts, but to expanding, standardizing, and securing the sharing of financial data. The stakes are significant: moving from a constrained open banking model to a structured and interoperable open finance framework.

This position paper offers a clear, practical perspective on the FIDA regulation and its concrete implications for financial institutions. It includes:

an analysis of the limitations of the current open banking framework (PSD2)
a breakdown of the expanded scope of financial data
insights into the major regulatory changes introduced by FIDA
an assessment of the operational impacts for banks, insurers, and financial institutions
practical guidance on turning data sharing into a driver of value creation and innovation

For banks, insurers, and fintechs, FIDA represents far more than a regulatory update. The reform will reshape data management and sharing models, require upgrades to technology infrastructure, and increase operational complexity.

At the same time, it creates a major opportunity for innovation and differentiation. Institutions that anticipate these changes will be well positioned to develop new services, strengthen customer relationships, and unlock new growth engines.

Download the position paper now and enjoy your reading.

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The European Union’s push for green mobility is set to become a decisive driver of transformation in the Italian transport sector. As part of the European Green Deal, Brussels has intensified pressure on member states to reduce emissions and promote sustainable transport solutions.

Key initiatives include stricter CO₂ standards under the Euro 7 regulation, emission trading systems, and legislative support for alternative fuel infrastructures, alongside strategies for smart and sustainable mobility.

This article focuses on how these EU directives are shaping Italy’s heavy-duty vehicle market, particularly buses, which represent a substantial share of road transport emissions.

Achieving the ambitious targets—45% emission reduction by 2030, 65% by 2035, and 90% by 2040—requires a comprehensive shift toward zero-emission technologies. Public Transport Companies (PTCs) are already responding by introducing electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered vehicles, though adoption is constrained by high upfront costs, infrastructure needs, and the need for specialised operational and maintenance skills.

The Italian context presents additional challenges, including an ageing bus fleet, fragmented PTC structures, and limited financial margins. Yet, recent investments, public funding initiatives, and pilot projects, such as FNM Group’s hydrogen-powered rail and bus programme in Lombardy—illustrate both the opportunities and complexities of this transition. Navigating these changes demands not only technological innovation but also strategic governance, workforce development, and a coordinated approach across operators, regulators, and local stakeholders.

By examining the environmental, economic, and organisational aspects of Italy’s green mobility shift, this study highlights the critical role of planning, infrastructure, and policy alignment in achieving sustainable transport goals.

Download the position paper to gain a clear, strategic perspective on threats and opportunities for Italian PTCs to use green buses.

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New Delhi will host the India AI Impact Summit 2026 from 16 to 20 February 2026, the world’s first global artificial intelligence summit to be held in a country of the Global South. On the occasion of this major international event dedicated to the strategic, technological and business challenges of AI, TNP Consultants and the teams from TNP India will be present at the French Pavilion (Hall 14).

Announced on the sidelines of the France AI Action Summit, the event aims to reposition the international debate on AI — until now largely shaped by Europe, the United States and China — towards issues of inclusion, access and tangible impact in countries of the Global South. TNP’s teams, and in particular those from our TNP India office, will actively contribute to these discussions.

TNP addressing the major challenges of AI

This participation fully reflects TNP’s ambition: to promote the firm’s vision and expertise in the industrialisation of AI in the service of business performance. TNP supports organisations in the sustainable transformation of their operating models, positioning artificial intelligence as a concrete lever for value creation.

Alongside our European and Indian teams, Benoit Ranini, CEO and Co-Founder of TNP, will share insights and convictions on key topics, including:

the industrialisation of AI use cases,
the integration of AI, intelligent automation and operational performance,
the creation of measurable, responsible and sustainable impact.

The strong presence of France at this major event, symbolised in particular by the visit of the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, illustrates France’s ambition to play a leading role in shaping a sovereign, responsible and competitive AI ecosystem on a global scale.

Meet us at the French Pavilion (Hall 14) and book a dedicated meeting with TNP leaders via the QR code for appointment booking.

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Luxembourg, [January 12 2026] – TNP announces the official opening of its new offices in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) and Manama (Bahrain), marking a significant milestone in the Group’s development across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

This dual opening builds on a journey initiated nearly three years ago, and complements TNP’s existing presence in the region, notably in Dubai through its joint venture TNP SFL.

With teams now fully operational on the ground in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, TNP reinforces its proximity to clients and its ability to support large-scale transformation programs across the region.

Supporting national reform agendas and major global milestones

The GCC is undergoing profound and accelerating transformation, driven by ambitious long-term reform programs such as Saudi Vision 2030 and Bahrain Economic Vision 2030. These agendas are further amplified by major international milestones, including Expo 2030 in Riyadh and Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup 2034.

In this context, TNP aims to act as a trusted partner for both private and public sector organizations navigating complex transformation challenges.

A clear ambition and differentiated expertise

In the GCC, TNP focuses on delivering high-impact advisory services across three core dimensions:

Large-scale transformation and performance, through the design and deployment of Target Operating Models and complex transformation programs;
Regulatory compliance and trust, supporting clients in highly regulated environments;
Business and technology solutions, including the implementation of leading platforms such as Temenos and Finastra, as well as innovative value propositions integrating islamic finance specificities and the rapid emergence of AI agents.

TNP’s sector focus in the region spans Financial Services, Consumer Goods, Retail & Luxury, Mobility, Infrastructure, Energy, and Utilities — industries that are central to the region’s economic diversification and long-term growth.

With exceptional growth perspectives across the GCC, TNP intends to play a meaningful and long-term role in the region’s transformation, combining ambition, humility, and sustainable impact. As part of this expansion, TNP is actively recruiting across the region to further strengthen its teams and continue building a top-tier consulting platform in the Gulf.

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Container Demand forecasting for Intelligent automation in Logistics

In modern logistics, efficient cargo movement depends on having the right containers available at the right place and time. When trade demand shifts suddenly or containers sit idle in the wrong locations, it disrupts operations and increases costs. Container demand forecasting, powered by intelligent automation, helps tackle this challenge by analyzing data from shipment histories, port activity, trade volumes, and even external factors like weather or geopolitical events. With AI-driven insights, logistics teams can predict container shortages or surpluses across ports, automate repositioning and allocation, reduce idle inventory, and improve turnaround efficiency. The result is smarter container utilization, fewer disruptions, and a more resilient global supply chain.

Factors affecting Container Demand

Container demand forecasting starts with understanding global and regional trade trends. Economic growth drives higher production and exports, increasing container needs, while slowdowns can leave many containers idle. Factors such as GDP, industrial output, consumer demand, and trade volumes directly influence shipments.

Port and shipping operations also affect container availability. Congestion, slow vessel turnaround, or delays can create regional shortages or surpluses. Empty container repositioning is a challenge, and even small changes in transit times or routes can shift demand patterns. Forecasting helps identify and address these imbalances early.

Geopolitical and environmental events can further disrupt container flows. Trade wars, sanctions, regional conflicts, or natural disasters like storms or floods can force rerouting or port closures. Including such data in forecasting allows logistics operators to plan more flexibly.

Supply chain practices play a major role as well. “Just-in-time” models rely on precise container availability, while “just-in-case” strategies increase usage. Seasonal spikes, such as holidays or harvest periods, also affect demand, making accurate forecasts essential for planning.

Technology is transforming forecasting. IoT sensors, GPS tracking, and port data give real-time visibility, while AI and machine learning can combine historical trends with external factors like weather or trade statistics for more accurate predictions.

Finally, market sentiment and pricing influence container usage. High freight rates may reduce bookings, while low rates encourage shipments. Fuel costs, leasing trends, and new container supply also impact circulation. Monitoring these factors helps create more realistic and adaptive forecasts.

Approach to build a strong Forecast

A robust forecasting framework combines time-series data — including past bookings, trade volumes, and seasonality — to identify historical patterns and recurring demand cycles. This helps logistics operators anticipate peak periods and potential imbalances before they occur. By integrating causal variables such as GDP growth, fuel prices, weather disruptions, and trade policies, the model can better capture real-world factors that drive fluctuations in container utilization.

To enhance reliability, simulation and scenario modeling are used to test how external shocks — like port closures, geopolitical conflicts, or natural disasters — could impact container flows. These models allow supply chain planners to build proactive strategies, ensuring resilience and agility in an unpredictable global trade environment.

Feature selection without data leakage

Choosing the right features while avoiding data leakage is crucial. Only historical and contemporaneous data should be used, ensuring the model doesn’t “peek into the future.” Proper feature selection allows the model to learn meaningful patterns without bias, leading to reliable forecasts in real-world scenarios.

Forecasting algorithms with exogenous data

External factors like GDP, fuel prices, and weather significantly influence container demand. Forecasting models that include exogenous variables—such as ARIMAX, Prophet with regressors, or machine learning models like XGBoost and LSTM—can capture these effects. Integrating these variables allows logistics planners to anticipate anomalies and make proactive decisions.

Back testing

After building a model, back testing is essential to evaluate performance. By simulating past forecasts on historical data, planners can compare predicted versus actual container demand, adjust parameters, and improve model robustness. Back testing ensures the model performs effectively under real-world conditions.

Intelligent automation with demand forecast

An intelligent automation system can be put in place that integrates demand forecasting with real-time operational alerts to enable proactive, data-driven container management. It ensures efficient utilization of assets, optimized costs, and improved customer service by predicting container demand and automatically recommending corrective actions.

How It Works

1. Forecasting Module:
Using historical data, booking trends, seasonality, and external variables (such as trade routes or market conditions), the system predicts container demand across ports and time periods.

The module also gives options for simulating geopolitical and other factors which could not be modelled earlier.
Example: Predicts that 10,000 40 HC containers will be needed at Nhava Sheva port next week.

2. Availability Check & Risk Assessment:
The system compares forecasted demand against current allocation and empty container availability.

Under-Utilization Risk: When forecast < allocated capacity → signals excess allocation.
Shortage Risk: When forecast > available empties → signals a potential deficit.

3. Automated Alerts & Decision Support:
Based on the detected imbalance, the system automatically triggers alerts to the operations team.
Example:

Shortage Alert: Forecast = 10,000 TEUs, Availability = 7,000 → Gap of 3,000 TEUs.
Alert recommends repositioning 2,000 containers from nearby Port Y and leasing 1,000 from a vendor.

An additional module that can be included in this system is an “Action Execution & Continuous Learning module”. The system can be integrated with execution platforms (transport management, leasing systems) to initiate corrective actions. Post-action results can be fed back into the model to continuously improve accuracy and responsiveness. Post-deployment actions like data drift management will be handled by this module.

Conclusion

Container demand forecasting is not just a predictive tool — it’s a catalyst for transforming logistics into a more intelligent, adaptive ecosystem. By integrating AI-driven insights with automated decision-making, logistics networks can move from reactive responses to proactive, optimized operations. The value extends beyond daily efficiency: it enhances strategic planning, reduces environmental impact through smarter repositioning, and strengthens supply chain resilience against global disruptions.

As the logistics industry continues to digitize, intelligent automation powered by accurate demand forecasting will be central to achieving agility, sustainability, and competitive advantage in global trade.

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Outsourcing has entered a new era. Under the combined pressure of geopolitical tensions, tighter regulation (DORA, the AI Act, ESG requirements), and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, reliance on third parties has become a strategic issue of sovereignty, resilience, and competitiveness.

Long viewed as a lever for operational efficiency, outsourcing now directly affects business continuity, regulatory compliance, and organizations’ capacity to innovate.

Value chains are increasingly fragmented and interconnected. Cloud service providers, data suppliers, technology vendors, and strategic partners play a critical role in corporate operations. This interdependence exposes organizations to systemic risks: cyberattacks, service disruptions, regulatory sanctions, or loss of digital sovereignty.

By 2026, the question will no longer be whether to outsource, but how to effectively manage third-party risk.

New European regulations are fundamentally reshaping third-party management:

DORA requires continuous oversight of ICT service providers and critical third parties;
The AI Act strengthens governance, transparency, and auditability requirements for AI solutions, whether developed in-house or outsourced;
ESG and duty-of-care obligations extend corporate responsibility across the entire value chain.

Compliance is becoming an ongoing management discipline, embedded in strategic decision-making.

This position paper explains how Third Party Risk Management (TPRM) and Know Your Supplier (KYS) are evolving toward more advanced models: continuous monitoring, collaborative platforms, data and AI-driven insights, and stronger governance.

When effectively managed, third-party oversight becomes a driver of trust, resilience, and sustainable performance—supporting long-term organizational leadership.

Download the Outsourcing, Sovereignty, and AI position paper to discover how to turn third-party dependencies into a lever for sovereignty, sustainable performance, and trust.

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Executive Summary

Market duopolies project an image of stability but conceal a profound structural vulnerability. When a single dominant player fails, it does not merely cause a delay but triggers a non-linear systemic collapse. This manifests as acute consumer price volatility and national economic risk.

TNP, in this article, examines why duopolies become brittle, the architectures of systemic failure embedded within them, global proof points of collapse, and strategic imperatives for incumbents, regulators, and challengers. The analysis concludes that resilience — not efficiency — must now be the core competitive advantage.

The Acute Trigger: When “Lean” Becomes “Fragile”

The recent crisis in Indian Aviation offers an indelible lesson in market fragility. With IndiGo and Air India controlling the vast majority of capacity, the market operates with critical concentration.

The catalyst was regulatory: the implementation of new Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL). IndiGo, having engineered minimal operational slack to maximize efficiency, immediately faced a mass crew deficiency.

The Financial Fallout

Immediate Capacity Shock: The airline could not absorb the roster changes.
Price Volatility: Consumer prices spiked by 300% to 400%.

CRITICAL TAKEAWAY: Concentration risk instantly transforms a routine operational snag into a system-wide financial and logistical crisis. It validates the premise that duopolies trade structural stability for short-term cost efficiency.

The Core Architecture of Failure

This vulnerability is not random. It is rooted in three defining systemic failure modes that characterize concentrated markets, irrespective of the industry:

1. Structural Fragility

When a major capacity provider falters, the system lacks the robust redundancy necessary to route demand elsewhere. The market is instantly seized by a paralysis that is structural, ensuring the failure is borne by the entire system.

2. Pricing Dependency

In the absence of viable alternatives, the surviving incumbent gains extraordinary, unchallenged pricing leverage. This dependency is exploited during periods of crisis, where the consumer’s need becomes the incumbent’s non-competitive profit mechanism.

3. Innovation Bottlenecks

Low competitive intensity removes the incentive for defensive innovation. Incumbents become structurally inflexible, clinging to legacy operational systems that are optimized for scale but are incapable of responding with agility to modern shifts.

ANALYTICAL TAKEAWAY: These three risks are not merely contingencies; they represent the predictable failure architecture engineered into concentrated markets.

Notable Global Duopoly Examples and Resulting Crises

Duopolies exist across many high-barrier-to-entry sectors. The common theme in the crises they create is reduced innovation, higher long-term prices, and vulnerability to supply chain or operational shocks.

Industry	Duopoly Example	Key Crisis / Negative Effect
Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing	Boeing vs. Airbus	Supply Dependence & Safety Risks: Airlines worldwide rely on just two sources. Failures or design flaws (e.g., the Boeing 737 MAX grounding crisis) have massive global repercussions.
Global Credit / Payment Processing	Visa vs. Mastercard	High Interchange Fees: Concentration lets them maintain elevated fees passed to consumers.
Soft Drinks (Cola Segment)	Coca-Cola vs. PepsiCo	High Barriers to Entry & Collusion Risk: Dominance reduces incentives for price competition or innovation.
Mobile Operating Systems	Android vs. iOS	Ecosystem Lock-in & App Store Control: Legal scrutiny over commissions and gatekeeping remains continuous.

Diagnosis: A Framework for Self-Assessment

To gauge your own industry’s susceptibility to fragility, we apply a dual diagnostic approach leveraging hard metrics and qualitative assessments.

Quantitative Anchor: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)

This industry-standard metric is a critical proxy for market concentration:

HHI Score	Market Interpretation
< 1,500	Competitive Marketplace
1,500 – 2,500	Moderately Concentrated
> 2,500	Highly Concentrated (Critical Duopoly Zone)

Qualitative Indicators

Entry Barriers: Does it take more than 5 years for a well-funded challenger to scale?
Failure Correlation: One failure affects everyone? That is systemic fragility.
Pricing Predictability: When demand shifts, do dominant prices move in unison?

Global Proof Points: The Measurable Cost

Systemic risk is not theoretical; it is measured in economic and public health metrics across diverse global sectors.

Market	Critical Data Point	Primary Risk Manifested
US Baby Formula	In-stock rates dropped to 19% due to single-supplier dependency.	Systemic Fragility
Insulin (Pharma)	US prices were 10X higher than in 32 comparable foreign nations.	Pricing Dependency
Semiconductors (GPU)	Nvidia controls 80%–92% of AI accelerators through CUDA.	Innovation Bottleneck
Indian Aviation	300%–400% price spikes during capacity shock.	Systemic Fragility & Dependency

Strategic Imperatives: How to Respond

Different stakeholders must adopt distinct playbooks to manage this risk.

1. For The Incumbent: Mandate Resilience

Internalize risk; the threat is structural fragility, not competition.

Institutionalize Agility: Maintain 15% reserve capacity as hedge.
Diversify the Moat: Add redundancy in infrastructure and supply.

2. For The Government: Intervention for Health

Shift from reaction to proactive structural reform.

Mandate Buffers: Verify operational slack regularly.
De-Risk Market Structure: Simplify licensing, enforce data portability.

3. For The Competitor: Exploit Slowness

Target niches where incumbents are rigid.

Attack the Fringe: High-margin verticals before scaling.
Offer Risk-Shielded Contracts: Guaranteed pricing and SLAs.

Conclusion

The structural flaw of the duopoly is not a competitive advantage but a profound systemic risk. The cost is measured in consumer price spikes, public health crises, and economic dependency.
Mandate resilience, dismantle moats, and compete with agile, risk-aware strategy.

53:T29eb,

In just five years, Brazil has turned PIX into a national symbol: an instant, mass-market, inclusive, and sovereign payment system. A lightning-fast trajectory that sharply contrasts with Europe’s ongoing hesitation. So, has the Brazilian model already solved what Europe is still struggling to build?

Launched by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) in close coordination with private-sector players (banks and fintechs), the project aimed to restore sovereignty to Brazil’s payment infrastructure — a market previously dominated by the American giants Visa and Mastercard. The BCB also wanted to expand financial inclusion and radically simplify payment journeys, ambitions shared by many central banks worldwide, including the European Central Bank.

The outcome has been nothing short of remarkable. In just four years, the BCB convinced 160 million Brazilians (three-quarters of the population) and 15 million businesses to adopt the system, with 340 banks connected. By 2024, PIX represented 76.4% of all payments in the country. It has been adopted by nine million small merchants, even in the most remote regions, representing 27% of Brazil’s GDP. These numbers would make any European banker dream, especially given that Brazil’s population (212 million) represents nearly half of the EU’s (447 million in 2025).

PIX, Brazil’s instant-payment revolution

It is impossible not to compare PIX to Wero, the instant payment system currently being rolled out by French, German, and Belgian banks (43.5 million registered users after one year, soon to be joined by Belgium and Luxembourg), as well as to the many instant-payment systems that have emerged across the world. There are now more than 50: EuroPA (Bizum, Bancomat, SIBS MB Way, Vipps MobilePay), Wero in Europe, UPI in India, NETS in Singapore, Osko in Australia, Fawran in Qatar, and many more.

These systems all rely on similar foundations: instant account-to-account transfers (under five seconds), availability 24/7, mobile-first experiences, and free payments for consumers — a key driver of financial inclusion, especially for low-income populations. PIX lets users choose how to identify their “PIX account”, not their bank account, but their PIX identity: mobile number, email address, tax ID, or a random key generated upon registration. Counterintuitively, the random key is now the most widely used: it protects personal data by avoiding the need to share private identifiers during transactions. A single bank account can have up to five PIX keys, which users can select depending on whom they are transacting with.

PIX’s functionalities already surpass those of Wero (some of which will only arrive in Europe by 2026). Beyond peer-to-peer transfers, PIX quickly expanded to in-store payments (via card terminals) and e-commerce. The system was designed from day one to reflect local needs and consumer behavior. Users can manage their own transaction limits in their app, adjusting them for daytime vs. nighttime (given higher crime risks), or weekdays vs. weekends. PIX also supports installment payments, deferred payments, and even cash withdrawals at merchant locations. Authentication is handled through users’ regular banking apps (no standalone PIX app), a friction point for Europeans accustomed to ultra-fluid Apple Pay or Google Pay journeys, but not for Brazilians.

The power of public–private alignment

Nous To understand PIX’s breakthrough, one must look back to Brazil’s payment landscape just five years ago: cash dominated, card networks were controlled by foreign operators, bank transfers cost between €1 and €5, and nearly 50 million Brazilians remained unbanked. The conditions were ideal for disruptive innovation.

The contrast with Europe is immense: a heavily banked population (99% in France, 80% across Europe), resilient domestic payment systems, and — in some markets — sovereign card networks (like France’s “CB”). The BCB coordinated PIX with the private sector, imposing nothing but listening carefully before drafting the December 2018 directives. And crucially, the system covered a single political jurisdiction, rather than 27 countries with diverging priorities.

The central bank itself built and operated the interbank infrastructure, drastically reducing costs, while private actors developed the client-facing services. A single common app might have been even more economical — a vision Wero is now exploring.

Launching PIX in October 2020, during the height of COVID-19, proved to be perfect timing: Brazilians were actively seeking contactless, cashless alternatives. Merchant acceptance expanded only after reaching critical mass among individuals. The rollout was staged with precision: PIX for merchants launched in February 2021 (just one week before Carnival) leading to an explosion of usage during this high-spending period. Marketing campaigns targeted specific user groups on social media, complete with jingles everyone now recognizes. Merchants were incentivized through discounts of up to 5% on PIX payments — reflecting savings on card-network fees.

The result is a nationwide phenomenon. Anyone returning from Brazil can attest to the “Pixmania”: you can pay for two bananas or a bottle of water on the beach via PIX.

A massive system, still young and fragile

PIX is still young and must improve its resilience. System outages have occasionally lasted several minutes or hours. Handling massive volumes through a single infrastructure creates fragility — whereas Europe distributes processing nodes across countries, reducing single points of failure.

Fraud is an emerging concern: Europe’s longstanding experience with cards and SEPA gives it a maturity Brazil has not yet reached. PIX will need to evolve rapidly to keep pace with new fraud patterns. Refund management is also challenging: PIX transactions are irrevocable, unlike Europe’s SEPA frameworks, which benefit from robust regulation and mature business processes.

PIX, built almost from scratch within a previously limited interbank landscape, is now experiencing the “cost of its own success.” But Brazil’s motivated banking community appears ready to address these challenges.

Brazil’s model now looks toward Europe

Buoyed by its success, PIX is already expanding to Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina — and even dreams of reaching Europe. But Europe is already developing its own sovereign real-time transfer systems and is working toward interoperability through the Wero–EuroPA partnership. Meanwhile, the ECB is pursuing a very different strategic agenda, including the digital euro.

A more realistic global pathway may come from Project Nexus, led by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which aims to create interoperability between instant-payment systems worldwide. In such a scenario, a French consumer could pay in Brazil using Wero, and a Brazilian consumer could pay in France using PIX — each in their own currency. The experience would mirror Visa and Mastercard but without sacrificing national sovereignty.

Innovation: two continents, two philosophies

Brazil’s success raises an essential question: Why do some innovations flourish faster in one region than another? The answer lies beyond technology. Brazil benefited from a “blank canvas” in digital payments, whereas industrialized countries already have mature, reliable systems in place. Sometimes, the technological leapfrog puts so-called “late” adopters ahead. Mobile telephony offers a telling parallel: countries lacking fixed-line infrastructure saw explosive mobile adoption, while heavily cabled nations like France still have “white zones” in 2025.

In instant payments, Brazil and Europe followed opposite trajectories: Brazil started with a need and co-designed rules, infrastructure, and consumer services. Europe started with an idea — instantaneity — and legislated it by opening competition to private players for the benefit of consumers. But banks were never fully convinced: “Who needs instant payments?” they asked. They treated it as a compliance obligation rather than a client offering.

European instant transfers launched as a paid service (€1 per transfer!) aimed at covering investment costs, with no real marketing push — and certainly no desire to cannibalize lucrative card revenues. To date, no comprehensive client offering has been built around instant transfers — no limit management, deferred payments, or installments.

This contrast illustrates what fuels innovation, or suppresses it: either unmet need or difficulty escaping entrenched positions.

A Lesson Europe Can Learn From

Europe can only admire what Brazil has accomplished. PIX is not “new” for Europeans — it is essentially what banks are currently trying to build. Brazil has simply demonstrated, ahead of the curve, that an instant-payment system can work seamlessly at national scale. PIX offers lessons on rapid adoption, financial inclusion, and the successful alignment of public and private players to design a payment solution that truly reflects citizens’ needs. Brazil created new rules, made a technological leap, and anchored adoption across its banking ecosystem.

Europe, by contrast, tends to endure new regulations rather than design operational solutions based on actual user needs. Great projects emerge from collaboration — not trench warfare. Now the question remains: How will European banks make instant payments as attractive for citizens and businesses as PIX is today for Brazilians?

54:T6e0,

The energy sector is entering a phase of profound transformation. On the supply side, net-zero goals are pushing for a sustainable production, increasing the variability and decentralization of the supply. On the demand side, digitalization is creating massive and concentrated loads on the demand side driven by the exponential growth in demand of AI and cloud services. The intersection of these two curves is not only disruptive, but is redefining the architecture of the utilities business models.

A clear example of this shift lies in the rise of data centers. Data centers not only represent an enormous growing segment for utilities, but, if correctly integrated in their business model, they can become a powerful lever to speed up utilities’ transition goals.

In this article, you’ll explore:

The two forces reshaping the utility sector
Why Italy is at a strategic inflection point
A2A’s and Totalenergies case studies
Utilities in transition: from linear providers to system orchestrators

Download the full article and discover how the convergence of energy and digital is rewriting the rules of the game.

55:T7bd,

As artificial intelligence advances beyond rule-bound automation, enterprises are entering a new era of autonomous, goal-driven systems. Agentic AI represents this shift—from static, predefined tasks to adaptive, self-directed decision-making capable of operating in dynamic and uncertain environments. Unlike conventional models that interpret inputs or generate predictions in isolation, agentic systems can establish objectives, plan actions, and continually refine strategies based on real-world outcomes.

This evolution has profound implications for enterprise operations. Traditional AI may excel at tasks such as demand forecasting or transactional automation, but it falters when disruption invalidates historical patterns. In contrast, agentic systems can orchestrate workflows end-to-end, reallocate resources, manage exceptions, and collaborate across organizational boundaries in real time. For global supply chains, this means moving from reactive response to proactive resilience—anticipating disruptions, coordinating partners, and adjusting logistics autonomously.

Why read this document?

This whitepaper examines how agentic systems address real-world operational challenges and enable the next wave of organizational transformation. It provides a structured perspective on how emerging autonomous systems can strengthen competitiveness and resilience across industries.

Understand the transition from legacy processes to intelligent, adaptive systems.
Identify the characteristics of Frontier Firms and the pathways to achieving them.
Explore the foundational capabilities driving autonomy and decision intelligence.
Evaluate organizational readiness, manage associated risks, and prepare for large-scale adoption.

56:T8cf,

TNP is pleased to invite you to the next edition of the CIO/CDO/COO Club Luxembourg, an exclusive dinner dedicated to strategic insight, digital sovereignty, and the exchange of experiences among technology leaders.

Evening Topic: Digital Sovereignty 2030: Can Luxembourg Become Europe’s Accelerator?

January 21, 2026 at Public House (Casino I Forum d’art contemporain), Luxembourg, starting at 6:30 p.m.

A strategic priority for Luxembourg’s economy. Since the launch of the “Accelerating Digital Sovereignty 2030” initiative,

Luxembourg has reaffirmed its ambition to transform data, AI, and quantum technologies into pillars of sovereignty, competitiveness, and resilience.

The vision is clear, but how do we make it a reality?

How can Luxembourg strengthen its position as a European digital hub, both innovative and sovereign?
Which levers will ensure an inclusive, ethical, and competitive technological transition?
And most importantly: what role should CIOs, CDOs, and COOs play in turning this vision into concrete action?

With the participation of Paul Konsbruck, CEO of LuxConnect

This evening will also feature insights from Emmanuel Houzelle, Associate Partner at TNP, who will present a pragmatic framework for digital risk management. Developed from the results of TNP and Roland Berger’s European survey on digital sovereignty, this analysis will help structure and enrich the discussions among Club members.

The event will be moderated by Pedro Castilho, in a format designed to foster open dialogue and peer exchange.

Participation is by invitation only. Please confirm your attendance at your earliest convenience. Seats are limited.

57:Tcd4,

TNP Consultants invites you to an exclusive series of webinars, taking place from October 16, 2024 to February 12, 2025, to explore the AI governance software solutions available on the market.

Discover the Challenges of the European Artificial Intelligence Regulation (AI Act). On July 12, 2024, the European Union published the Artificial Intelligence Regulation (AI Act), which will be gradually implemented starting on February 2, 2025.

JOIN US ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 18th WITH OUR SPEAKERS:

Florence Bonnet, Partner, TNP
2021.AI

Each 30-minute session will give you the opportunity to discover how these tools can address compliance challenges and mitigate risks related to AI within organizations. You will see practical demonstrations of essential features, such as:

Inventory of AI systems
Regulatory compliance (AI Act, GDPR)
Risk assessment (DPIA, FRIA)
Third-party risk management
Transparency, security, and robustness of AI systems
Mitigating bias and discrimination

Don’t miss this unique opportunity to gain a comprehensive understanding of the tools that can help you secure and govern your AI projects while preparing for the upcoming regulatory requirements.

The Tools: OneTrust, Fairly AI, Truyo AI, Fairnow, 2021.AI, Holistic AI, Securiti.AI

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The subject raises curiosity, envy, and the certainty of having to take the plunge in the next few months.

But how to get started? What are the prerequisites and dimensions to integrate before embarking on the adventure?

Discover our survey results conducted among more than 150 executives and cross-referenced with interviews of the market’s leading editors and find out the five golden rules to consult before embarking on the adventure.

59:T68f,

Every week, join our world tour of data privacy laws with a new destination & its comparative summary with the EU’s GDPR.

This week, destination China! Find out everything you need to know about the PIPL (Personal Information Protection Law), which came into effect in November in the People’s Republic of China, and how it differs from our GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), in force in Europe.

Download the 1st episode of our experts’ benchmark and find a comparison of the two laws on the following axes:

KEY DEFINITIONS, MATERIAL & TERRITORIAL SCOPE
LEGAL BASIS
PERSONAL DATA TRANSFERS
RIGHTS OF DATA SUBJECTS
DPO & REPRESENTATIVE
DATA BREACH NOTIFICATION
ENFORCEMENT

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Processing personal data is a heavily regulated activity, and carrying out personal data processing operations should be done with close supervision of the respective legal frameworks.

The most common alternatives to mitigate the risks posed by data processing operations are encryption or de-identification of personal data. But sometimes, these alternatives are not feasible.

Another alternative method is to generate new data from real datasets. This process is called synthetizing data. Synthetic data is data generated from authentic data which attempts to emulate the statistical proprieties of the real datasets. If the statistical properties of the original data are sufficiently simulated, synthetic data can be used as a proxy for real data in certain use cases.

Keeping the statistical properties means that anyone analyzing the synthetic data should be able to extract identical statistical conclusions from evaluating a given dataset of synthetic data as they would, if given the real (original) data.

schéma1-synthetic data — Khaled El Emam, Lucy Mosquera & Richard Hoptroff, Practical Synthetic Data Generation. Balancing Privacy and the Broad Availability of Data (O’Reilly 2020) page 2

Because it is not real data, it will not have the same privacy risks. There is no one-to-one mapping between the records in synthetic data and the real individuals when done correctly. Therefore, it can be considered de-personalized or not personal data.[1]

Why is it essential from data protection and privacy perspective?

Retaining the statistical properties of a dataset while removing risk factors associated with the identifiability of natural persons brings countless benefits. Below there is a list of the most important ones.

First, synthetic data provides efficient access to data when it is impossible to obtain data subjects’ consent. Accessing vast amounts of data is critical to developing AI systems: to train, test, and validate AI models. More broadly, data is also needed to evaluate AI technologies that others have created and test AI software applications or applications that incorporate AI models. In general, companies collect data for a purpose, so if developers plan to use it for other purposes, they must obtain consent from individuals. Data synthesis can provide analysts with realistic data to work relatively efficiently and at scale.

Second, synthetic data enables better analytics. We can use synthetically generated datasets: when real data does not exist (e.g., when modeling something completely new), when real data exists but is not labeled (e.g., in ML supervised learning), and when data is not yet accessible, to train a model. Also, developers may use synthetic data models to validate their assumptions and demonstrate the kind of results that we can obtain with their models.

Third, synthetic data can be used as a proxy of real data. Where the utility of the synthetic data is high, analysts can get results with synthetic data similar to what they would have with authentic data.

Fourth, synthetic data reduces the costs of implementing controls. We can use synthetic data when the costs of implementing security and privacy controls to process anonymized data are too high.

Fifth and final, synthetic data reduces the regulatory compliance burden. We can also use synthetic data when processing personal data is costly or too burdensome. For example, it allows the training of AI models in a less privacy-intrusive manner because the data used in the training process does not directly refer to an identified or identifiable person. Additionally, it could be an alternative to enhance privacy in data transfers. We consider synthetic data a privacy-enhancing technology (PET), so it might be an additional measure for data transfers outside the EU or within organizations that do not need to identify a specific person.

In which sectors do we use synthetic data?

The following list provides an overview of some of the potential uses for synthetic data.

Manufacturing and distribution: Training robots to perform complex tasks in the production line or warehouses can be challenging because of the need to obtain realistic training data covering multiple-anticipated and non-anticipated scenarios (e.g., recognizing objects under different lighting conditions, with different textures, in various positions). Manufacturers and other organizations can use synthetic data for this purpose.
Healthcare: Obtaining datasets to build AI modes in the health industry is difficult due to the stringent regulations concerning the protection of special categories of data. Obtaining consent from the patient, implementing strong security measures to protect the data, and collecting enough information to build a reliable model are challenges that synthetic data can help overcome.
Financial services: getting access to large volumes of historical market data in the financial services industry or consumer transactions is challenging and costly. In financial services, synthetic data can help test internal software applications (e.g., fraud detection) and evaluate that those applications can scale their performance to handle the large volume of data they are likely to be met in practice.
Transportation: synthetic data can also be helpful for the transportation industry. Two applications are particularly relevant for this purpose. Firstly, organizations can use synthetic data in microsimulation models. Microsimulation environments allow users to do ‘what if’ analysis and run novel scenarios. These simulation environments become attractive when there is no data available; therefore, we need to create synthetic data. Secondly, synthetic data helps autonomous vehicles expand data availability for object identification.

When to use synthetic data?

In deciding to implement data synthetization, we should consider the PET alternatives to synthetic data. These alternatives are de-identification and pseudonymization.

But before deciding which technique the company should use, it is crucial to be aware of the concept of the identifiability spectrum.

We can consider identifiability as the probability of assigning a correct identity to a record in a dataset. Because it is a probability, it varies from 0 to 1. At one end of this spectrum is perfect identifiability (probability of 1), and at the other, it is impossible to assign an identity to a record correctly (probability of 0). Any dataset can have a probability of identification along this spectrum.

Organizations should also consider the trade-off between data privacy and data utility. If the organization wants to achieve a higher level of privacy, they have to accept a lower level of utility. The maximum utility would be the original data without any transformations or controls, but this will have the minimum amount of privacy and vice-versa.

But in general, to comply with privacy regulations worldwide, there is a further need to implement controls to manage the risk and protect the data.

Organizations, in general, take a holistic approach and decide about which PET to adopt based on the following criteria:

Privacy: the extent of data protection that comes down to whether the threshold is acceptable and whether the organization is convinced that the actual identification of the data is below the threshold
Data utility: the extent to which the data achieves the business objectives
Operational costs: the costs of acquiring and implementing the technology and the costs of the controls that organizations must put in place to use the synthetic data
Consumer trust: the willingness of individuals to continue to transact with the organization when using synthetic data
Level of transformation of the original data: if the original data is significantly transformed, it may lose utility value.

Implementing more controls will increase privacy protection, consumer trust, data utility, and operational costs. More transformation of the original data will also increase privacy protection and consumer trust, but it may decrease data utility.

Is synthetic data the solution to all the problems?

Of course not. Using synthetic data to gain insights or train AI models is not the panacea or the silver bullet. It also has some limitations that are worth exploring.

Risk of reidentification. As previously seen, synthetic data requires making trade-offs between privacy and utility. The more a synthetic dataset emulates the original dataset, the more utility it will have for analysts, but the more personal data it may reveal. That increases the compliance burden and the need to implement more controls to protect personal data.
Adversarial machine learning. There are situations where an attacker attempts to exert influence over generating synthetic data to force leakage. While it requires both the possession of the synthetic dataset and access to the model used to create synthetic data, the attacker can uncover the original information from the dataset. These risks of membership inference are more acute when revealing information about outlier records (i.e., data with characteristics that stand out among other documents).
Non-universality. There will always be situations when the demands of individuality will not be satisfied by any privacy-preserving technique.[2]

How can these challenges be addressed?

One essential consideration to bear in mind is that not every dataset synthetically generated is privacy-preserving.

When a generative model is trained without applying any form of data sanitization during or after training, the resulting data is called “Vanilla synthetic data.”[3] This kind of synthetic data is prone to data leakage. We argue that vanilla synthetic data does not guarantee that a dataset is 100% free of all actual identifiers (under HIPAA) and that it does not entirely insulate privacy (as required by CCPA or GDPR).[4]

A solution may be to use differential privacy in combination with synthetic data generation. We gain utility via synthetic data generation and privacy through differential privacy.[5] Differentially private synthetic data is one of the most robust privacy-preserving methods for synthetic data.[6]

What legal framework regulates the generation, sharing, and use of synthetic data?

Below a table summarizes the most important provisions of the GDPR concerning the generation, the sharing of data to build a synthetic dataset, and the use of synthetic data.[7]

In summary

Why synthetic data?

Getting access to good quality realistic data for AI/ML projects is difficult (time-consuming and costly, and in some cases not possible)
Data protection regulations and cross-border data transfers concerns are significant factors causing these difficulties.
Sometimes data is available, but the security levels needed to process that data are high, increasing the cost and reducing flexibility. That slows down the ability to build, test, and evaluate models and analytics technologies.
Data synthesis makes realistic data available for secondary purposes quickly.

When should an organization use synthetic data?

AI development: making data available to internal analysis and external collaborators for model development and testing
Software testing: performance and functional testing when access to production data is not open or possible
Technology evaluation: evaluating analytics and data wrangling technologies (from and by start-ups and academics)

References

[1] European Data Protection Supervisor “synthetic data” https://edps.europa.eu/press-publications/publications/techsonar/synthetic-data_en

[2] Steven M. Bellovin et al., Privacy and Synthetic Datasets, 22 STAN. TECH. L. REV. 1 (2019) page 4

[3] Idem p.41

[4] Idem p. 44 and 47

[5] Idem p. 38

[6] For more on how differential private synthetic data is generated, see NIST https://www.nist.gov/blogs/cybersecurity-insights/differentially-private-synthetic-data

[7] The table is adapted from the research made by Khaled El Emam, Lucy Mosquera & Richard Hoptroff in Practical Synthetic Data Generation. Balancing Privacy and the Broad Availability of Data (O’Reilly 2020).

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Every week, discover a destination from our world tour of data protection laws.

This week we take off for Brazil with the discovery of the LGPD, which came into force in August, and its differences with our GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), in force in Europe.

Download the 2nd episode of our experts’ benchmark and find a comparison of the two laws on the following axes:

KEY DEFINITIONS, MATERIAL & TERRITORIAL SCOPE
LEGAL BASIS
TRANSFERS OF PERSONAL DATA
DATA SUBJECTS’ RIGHTS
DPO & REPRESENTATIVE
DATA BREACH NOTIFICATION
ENFORCEMENT

5c:T5cf,

Each week, discover a destination from our world tour of data protection laws and its comparative analysis with the GDPR.

This week, we take off for Saudi Arabia with the discovery of the KSA PDPL and its differences with our GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), in force in Europe.

Download the 3rd episode of our experts’ benchmark, and find a comparative study of the two laws on the following axes:

KEY DEFINITIONS, MATERIAL & GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE
LEGAL BASIS
TRANSFERS OF PERSONAL DATA
DATA SUBJECTS’ RIGHTS
DPO & REPRESENTATIVE
DATA BREACH NOTIFICATION
ENFORCEMENT

5d:T638,

29 September 2022

For 15 new automotive players analyzed by TNP, more than $500 billion in valuation has been lost since the end of 2020. This represents more than 70% of their valuation. Is this the end of the start-up era?

In comparison, since the end of 2020, the legacy players have held up well, even if they have suffered from the difficult post-Covid economic situation and the turmoil of an industry under strong pressure: semiconductor crisis, war in Ukraine, necessary investments in new electric models.

5e:T79f,

Analysis of EBA’s view on ESG Risks Management

Financial institutions and companies are facing mounting pressures from environmental organizations (activists, NGOs, etc.) to be more accountable for their actions.

Besides, we have been witnessing the development of a new wave of European regulations (CRR2/CRR3, Green Taxonomy, SFDR, MIFID II, ESG, etc.) aimed at transforming economic activities toward a greener and a more sustainable economy, and to enhance the resilience of the financial sector against ESG risks in accordance with the European Commission’s Action Plan.

Therefore, the European Banking Authority (henceforth, EBA) stresses the necessity to enhance the incorporation of ESG risks into credit institutions’ and investment firms’ business strategies and processes. (EBA, report 2021). Consequently, credit institutions and investment firms are compelled to address ESG risks in an all-inclusive manner when incorporating them into their risk business strategies and building them into their management frameworks.

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The Grand Prix (Great Prize) and the Gold Award in the “Transformation of Organizations” category were awarded to TNP and the French Agency for Services and Payment at the Syntec Conseil yearly ceremony on November 29, 2022..

The Agency For Services and Payment (ASP) is a public body in charge of public support entirely dedicated to the implementation of public policies at European, national or local level.

This competition, jointly organized with Challenges magazine, recognize the transformational work consulting companies have undertaken with their clients.

Two awards won by TNP and ASP

2022 “Grand Prix”

The oral sessions with the winners of each of the 8 categories convinced the jury to award the 2022 Grand Prix, the most prestigious trophy, to ASP and to TNP.
This is a major award for TNP, which on the company’s 15th anniversary, recognizes both our ability to lead the largest transformations for our private and public clients, and to deliver results.

Gold Award, “Transformation of Organizations” category

This award recognizes the “demonstration of the impact of a strategy developed by a consulting firm on the structured/sustainable transformation of a organization”.

The jury members particularly pointed out:

The demonstration of a structured and sustainable transition for a public organization
The implementation of innovations on the organizational, technical, social, societal and HR levels
Proven results for the organization, its clients and stakeholders
The alignment between results and objectives, whatever the scale of the project submitted.

Highlights

Watch the replay (in French) :

About the Syntec Conseil Grand Prix

Syntec Conseil is the French employers and trade association representing the consulting sector in all its dimensions. Resulting from the merger of all Syntec associations in the field of research and consultancy that took place in March 2019, Syntec Conseil comprises 250 member companies which offer and develop expertise in the fields of strategy, management and organization, innovation and digital, change management, marketing and communication, research, corporate social responsibility, customer and employee engagement, head hunting, talent and human capital development.

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Selecting your MDM Platform and move into the Era of XDM

Data lies at the heart of what drives companies: it activates significant performance levers, in particular in cutting management costs, improving business performance and ensuring compliance with regulations in force.

The data-centric approach puts data at the heart of the company’s strategy, in order to unleash more value.

Master Data Management promises to meet these strategic challenges by centralizing information and standardizing master data within the information system (IS).

In order to help data professionals select the solution best suited to their needs, TNP’s experts have benchmarked Master Data Management solutions. in which they highlight the differentiating factors of these solutions in terms of functionality, technical aspects and vendor profile.

The vendors were selected using various sources: specialized press studies, presence among our financial sector clients, presence in rankings, direct relationships.

This document is a short extract from the Master Data Management Solutions Reviews white paper. To access the complete document, you can request it from the TNP contacts, mentioned at the end of the extract.

61:T224d,

To limit global warming to +2°C by 2050, it is urgent to identify low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels, on which the world economy currently depends for more than 80%. Transport is particularly affected since 31% of greenhouse gas emissions in France are due to this sector alone [1]. In this case, the new hydrogen storage solution could be a game-changer.

By Pierre-Emmanuel GUILHEMSANS-VENDÉ, R&D Consultant at TNP Consultants

Transport: transition to hydrogen well along in the pipeline

The objectives are clearly stated: to run 250 hydrogen trains by 2035 for the French rail operator SNCF, to launch the first hydrogen-powered aircrafts at Airbus within the same timeframe, or even to build a partnership with the first hydrogen ship in the world. – Energy Observer – for CMA-CGM. However, hydrogen provides an answer to transport decarbonization only if it is produced from low-carbon energy sources, mainly through the electrolysis of water. Unfortunately, 96% of hydrogen production currently comes from fossil fuels. This kind of hydrogen is called gray hydrogen, and its environmental gain compared to conventional fuel is marginal.

In France, low-carbon hydrogen can be produced via the electrolysis of water from renewable energy sources or nuclear power. Its emission factor can represent 80% less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout its life cycle compared to gray hydrogen (see Figure 1). For now, low-carbon hydrogen remains an expensive solution, but McKinsey expects its price to fall by 60% by 2030 to just €4 per kg [2] (see Figure 2).

Hydrogen storage: a hellish supply chain

The current high price of low-carbon hydrogen is mainly due to its production and storage costs. Regarding its production, various solutions such as reducing the construction cost of electrolyzers or the cost of electricity were considered by IRENA in a 2020 report [3] (see Figure 3). For storage, its high cost is explained by the nature of hydrogen, which has an energy density three times higher than gasoline or diesel but a very low volume density. To store hydrogen in a reasonable volume, the pressure and/or temperature must be modified. Hydrogen can be stored in three forms: gaseous, liquid or solid.

The gaseous form is the only form open to the public. Today, it supplies taxis (Hype in Île de France), trains (like Coradia iLint), trucks (Volvo in Europe, Hydrolux in Quebec), coaches (Safra in Occitanie or Hyzon in Australia), bicycles (Pragma Industries manufactures them in Biarritz) and buses (notably for the town of Les Sables d’Olonne in the Vendée region of France). In its gaseous form, hydrogen is compressed up to 700 bar: thus, 7 L of hydrogen contains as much energy as 1 L of gasoline. The compression mechanism will generate 6 % losses: it will be necessary to produce 1.06 kg of hydrogen to obtain 1 kg at the end of the process.

For the hydrogen to become liquid, the temperature has to be lowered to -252.87°C: in this case, 4 L of liquid hydrogen is equivalent to 1 L of gasoline. Here, due to the cryogenic temperature, evaporative losses can be up to 13 %. This form of hydrogen is currently reserved for the aerospace field as fuel for rockets, but Airbus could use it for its future ZEROe hydrogen plane and Daimler is testing it for its trucks. Hydrogen can also be stored in liquid ammonia at -33.4°C at atmospheric pressure, after being mixed with nitrogen from the air [4].

Developed by the CNRS and taken over by McPhy Energy, solid hydrogen corresponds to metal hydrides, stored in pellets 30 cm in diameter each containing 600 L of hydrogen. This technology has the advantage of operating at ambient temperature and at low pressures. In addition, its loss rate is only 3% and its volume density is higher than in the gaseous and liquid forms: 106 kg/m3 versus 70 kg/m3 in liquid form and 42 kg/m3 in gaseous form compressed to 700 bar. More recently, a new solid hydrogen storage with boron nitride was discovered by researchers at Deakin University, Australia.

A new form of hydrogen storage that could drastically simplify the supply chain

A new form of hydrogen storage, called HydroSil, proposed by Hysilabs, which has taken over development from the University of Aix Marseille, could however reshuffle the cards on the hydrogen market, with a hydrogen volume density of around 87 kg/m3 [5]. A liquid vector, silicon hydride, will be chemically charged with hydrogen: 8.7 kg of hydrogen will be stored in 100 kg of the liquid vector, i.e. 8.7% of hydrogen storage capacity. This charging process will make it possible to store seven times more hydrogen than in the case of gaseous hydrogen compressed to 200 bar. Then, the hydrogen can be released in 10 s in a carburetor by a chemical reaction of catalytic hydrolysis, without the need for any external energy. This hydrogen storage solution could first be used in stationary appliances and then, eventually, for transport.

Unlike the other forms, there would be no need for special infrastructures to transport and store hydrogen: the existing conventional infrastructures for oil products could be used, with minimal modifications. The transport of this type of hydrogen would have greenhouse gas emissions up to 40% lower and cost savings of 30% compared to conventional solutions.

In conclusion, according to Pierre-Emmanuel Casanova, Chloé Avetand and Lisa Raoux of HysiLabs, HydroSil is infinitely recyclable, non-toxic, non-flammable, stable, liquid, without any loss of hydrogen, economically competitive and could use current conventional infrastructures. It therefore has, on paper, all the advantages to become the main hydrogen storage technology.

By 2030, Hysilabs projects that its hydrogen charging and release facilities will have a capacity of 200 kt/year. However, France Hydrogène predicts that in 2030, hydrogen consumption in France will be 680 kt according to the Ambition 2030 scenario and even 1090 kt according to the Ambition+ 2030 scenario [6]. So Hysilabs would only absorb 18 to 30% of the hydrogen market in France if the company meets its growth objectives. It thus seems that the other forms of hydrogen (gaseous, liquid, solid, ammonia) will still have a role to play in the coming years.

Sources

[1] Haut Conseil pour le Climat, “Renforcer l’atténuation, engager l’adaptation”, June 2021.

[2] Hydrogen Council and McKinsey, “Path to hydrogen competitiveness: A cost perspective”, 2020.

[3] “Green hydrogen cost reduction: Scaling up electrolysers to meet the 1.5C climate goal”, p. 106.

[4] B. Tardieu and M. Florette, “Hydrogène, hydroélectricité et ammoniac : une union prometteuse de la transition écologique…”, Connaissances des énergies, February 8, 2022.

[5] “HySiLabs : la technologie qui révolutionne le transport de l’hydrogène”, EDF, May 19, 2022.

[6] France Hydrogène, “Trajectoire pour une grande ambition Hydrogène : Contribution de la filière au déploiement à 2030”, Sept. 2021.

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As part of its national low-carbon strategy (SNBC), France relies in part on its low-carbon electricity supplied by its nuclear reactors. But is it realistic?

By Pierre-Emmanuel GUILHEMSANS-VENDÉ, R&D Consultant at TNP Consultants. With the contribution of Grégory Lamotte, President & Founder of Comwatt

Nuclear power, a declining industry

Nuclear energy as a source of electricity has been present in France since 1955, following the creation of the CEA[1] ten years earlier by General de Gaulle [1]. But it was in March 1974 that the sector really took off under Georges Pompidou presidency and the first oil crisis. In the 1970s and 1980s, 54 reactors were built with a combined power of 55 GW. The industry was then the most dynamic, in its golden age. After the 1980s, the rate of construction was much lower and the last reactor built, Civaux 2, was commissioned in June 1999. The production peak was reached in 2005 [2], with 430 TWh of electrical energy produced (see Figure 1).

At that time, there were 59 second generation pressurized water reactors spread over 19 sites. Since then, 3 reactors have been permanently shut down and the production has decreased by 70 TWh in 2021, with 360.7 TWh. Overall, a decline in the sector has been observed for several years, due to the non-renewal of the nuclear fleet: no anticipation was made to take over the 2nd generation plants of the 70s and 80s once they reached the end of their service life after 40 years. As a result, Electricité de France (EDF) wants since 2009 to extend their lifespan to 60 years and the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) has already done the 4^th ten-year inspection for several reactors and authorized them to operate for 50 years. A sufficient level of electricity production at the national level has to be maintained at a reasonable cost: there is a problem of arbitration between black-out and nuclear risk.

A sluggish revival

The Flamanville European Pressurized water Reactor (EPR), symbol of the revival of a declining industry, originally promising a more efficient, safer and more powerful nuclear reactor (1,650 MW[1] instead of 900 MW), has been under construction since 2007 and has been accumulating delays and extra costs. Initially, the plant was supposed to cost 3 billion € and was scheduled to be commissioned in 2012. Now it has already cost 20 billion € and will not operate before the second quarter of 2023 [3], more than 10 years late! There was a mistake on the gigantism: naively, it was thought that “bigger is better”. So, as the size of the plant increased, the cost per kWh produced would decrease. This was a very bad calculation: threshold phenomena caused costs to explode. There was no crane big enough to put the cover on the power plant, or the physical limits of concrete were reached, with difficulty in pouring the concrete because of the quantities of iron foreseen by the engineers. Finally, the cover of the tank of the nuclear plant was designed in an undersized factory, which resulted in a problem of homogeneity in its composition (carbon/steel percentages). Thus, Flamanville will be commissioned with a non-compliant tank cover, with the authorization of the ASN, to be stopped while it is replaced by a new one – compliant this time – manufactured in Japan. According to EDF, this shutdown would only last 6 months, but an expert questioned on the issue speaks rather of 2-3 years.

A relative energy independence

In normal times, the selling price of electricity is low, but the current energy crisis with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the 2 years of covid, mean that the spot price of electricity on the European market has exploded by +532% [4], going from 64 €/MWh in January 2021 to 405 €/MWh in August 2022. Nuclear power is still cheap to produce despite its relative energy independence [5]. Indeed, historically, France produced all or part of its nuclear fuel: from 1954 to 2003, France extracted 75,965 t of uranium from its soil (see Figure 2). Since then, France has imported about 150 kt of uranium, at a rate of 8 to 10 kt/year, mainly from four countries: Kazakhstan, Australia, Niger and Uzbekistan [6].

However, the Ministry of Energy Transition estimated that France’s energy independence would be 55% in 2021 and 47.4% and 45.3% in the first and second quarters of 2022 respectively. But these figures are based on a statistical convention from the time when France still produced its nuclear fuel. In this convention, the primary energy counted is the heat emitted by the reactor and not the fuel used to cause nuclear fission and release that heat. As the heat is produced on French soil, the primary energy is in this case produced locally, hence the high level of independence. If the origin of the fuel were considered, France’s energy independence would only be 10 to 12% [8], which is equivalent to a country like Morocco, whose economy is almost 90% dependent on fossil fuels. This dependence can nevertheless be qualified by the fact that France has in advance a stock of natural uranium that can produce 2 years of electricity [9]. Moreover, France has a stock of depleted uranium, which once re-enriched would provide a natural uranium deposit of 60 kt, i.e. 8 years of electricity autonomy [10]. In the longer term, some of this depleted uranium could even be used directly for 4th generation reactors (there could be renewed interest in French uranium mines at that time). Overall, uranium resources would be 130 years (known) to 250 years (estimated) of world consumption. By then, nuclear fusion should have taken over (research on the subject should be finalized by 2100).

The 3 main advantages of nuclear power

Nuclear power is an energy:

compact: its footprint, i.e. the area needed to produce 1 MWh, compared to all other forms of energy, including fossil fuels, is very small: 0.1 m²/MWh compared to 0.2 m²/MWh for natural gas, 0.4 m²/MWh for oil, 1 m²/MWh for wind power, 10 m²/MWh for hydroelectricity, 10 m²/MWh for photovoltaic solar power and 500 m²/MWh for biomass [11]

Low-carbon: it has a lower emission factor than all other forms of energy, including renewables, and in particular compared to solar photovoltaics (see ).

This high load factor reflects the fact that nuclear energy produces more often than other forms of energy and even on demand, outside of maintenance periods, unlike renewables such as wind and solar which are intermittent because they are dependent on wind or sun (which are nevertheless highly predictable).However, it should be noted that the load factor of French nuclear fleet is extremely low compared to that of other countries: 95.3% for Taiwan, 89.1% for Switzerland and 90.7% for the United States [14]. This low factor is surprising, even worrying, given France’s competence in the field: France has the second largest nuclear fleet in the world, second only to the United States. The problems of cracks creating corrosion encountered this year on 12 of the 56 reactors will further reduce the load factor of the fleet for 2022: one only has to look at the energy independence rates which have dropped by about ten points over the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2022. However, these cracks were predictable: in INA archives from 1979, the then CEO of EDF, Marcel Boiteux, had predicted that given the pressures and temperatures suffered, the parts of the nuclear plant could only undergo 12,000 of thermal cycles corresponding to 40 years of use.Overall, nuclear energy has many advantages: it is cheap to produce, compact, controllable, and low carbon.Nuclear power has a bad reputationDespite all its undeniable qualities, nuclear power has a bad reputation in France. This can be explained by the following points. The absence of any real exploitation of oil products in France, contrary to producing countries such as Russia, USA, or the United Kingdom, makes nuclear the first energy produced in France, whereas 60% of the final energy consumed in France is of fossil origin. As a result, the press, environmental NGOs (e.g., Greenpeace) and the ecologist party focus on nuclear power, whereas the gradual move away from fossil fuels should be the priority and nuclear power is one of the solutions, at least in the short and medium term, to decarbonization, thanks to a massive electrification of the economy.The accidents at Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011) did not help civil nuclear power. In France, 4 minor accidents occurred in the power plants of Civaux (1998, 2006), Blayais (storm of December 1999)and Fessenheim (heat wave of March 2003) [15]. Moreover, the ASN estimates that several hundred deviations and a hundred anomalies are observed each year[1]. There is no such thing as a zero risk, but it is certain that the ageing of the power plants, the lack of training of the personnel in the power plants and the increase in extreme climatic phenomena aggravate the situation.The creation of potentially highly radioactive waste is also a point of tension in the public debate. Since the beginning of nuclear power in France, 1,700,000 m³ of waste have been created, 90% of which is very low-level waste (TFA) or low- and medium-level short-lived waste (FMA-VC). Only 0.2% of the waste is highly radioactive, i.e. 4190 m³ [16]. By comparison, a coal-fired power plant discharges 400 t of coal ash per installed MW per year [17]. It would take only 51 hours of operation of the 2067 GW of installed capacity of coal-fired power plants in the world in 2022 [18] to produce the same volume of waste as the nearly 70 years of operation of nuclear power plants in France. Moreover, for an equivalent capacity, a coal-fired power plant releases 10 to 100 times more radioactivity into the environment than a nuclear power plant under normal (non-accident) conditions [19].Moreover, political decisions do not help: in 2015, with the law on energy transition for green growth, François Hollande honored his November 2011 commitment with Europe Ecologie Les Verts (EELV), the French ecologic party by deciding to reduce the share of nuclear power in electricity production to 50% in 2025 and giving a cap on the installed capacity of the French nuclear fleet at 63.2 GW. In addition, during his 2017 campaign, Emmanuel Macron had also pledged to reduce the share of nuclear power in energy production to 50%. Even if Mr Macron has since changed his mind by announcing a vast nuclear recovery plan in October 2021, the damage had already been done: it had already been 6 years since the end of nuclear power was announced and 22 years since any plant had been built. The industry will have difficulties to recover since a good part of the personnel trained in recent years were trained to dismantle and not to build.Finally, to come back to the problem of the lack of training, a major problem in the nuclear sector is subcontracting. Today, 80% of the staff is made up of subcontractors, i.e. about 160,000 people spread over 2,500 companies, whereas 34 years ago, subcontracting accounted for no more than 30% of jobs. Moreover, despite a decree dated 28 June 2016 prohibiting the outsourcing of certain activities and limiting subcontracting to 3 levels [20], there are still sometimes up to 8 levels of subcontracting [21], [22]! However, according to a 2018 report by Barbara Pompili: “The loss of operator skills is a major source of danger and could only worsen the consequences in the event of a nuclear accident […] subcontracting has been identified as one of the elements responsible for the Fukushima accident”.Nuclear energy still needed for decarbonization

Nuclear energy has its place, or at worst it is a necessary evil, in the energy mix and in the French decarbonization strategy. Indeed, if we look at the scenarios of RTE (3 main scenarios) [13], ADEME (4 scenarios) [23] and Négawatt (1 scenario) [24] on the projections of the French energy mix in 2050, all the scenarios imagined by the 3 organizations agree on one point: nuclear fission will not be abandoned before at least 2045. Thus, even Négawatt, a fervent supporter of the nuclear phase-out, admits that, to achieve the objectives of decarbonizing the French economy by 2050, nuclear power must be maintained for another 23 years. According to RTE, “A (very) quick exit from nuclear power is incompatible with respecting France’s climate trajectories and/or maintaining security of supply in the short term. The rate of implementation of renewable energies would not be sustainable, requiring a tenfold increase compared to its current rate (see Figure 4)!

Moreover, both ADEME and Négawatt come to the same conclusion: the exit from nuclear power would only be possible if an extremely sober scenario is followed (division of primary energy consumption by 3, reduction of the living space of individual houses, reduction of meat consumption by 2 or 3, phasing-out of fossil fuels, massive development of carbon sinks, multiplication by 3 of renewable energy facilities). A profound change of mentality in the society would be necessary. In its main consumption trajectory, RTE is counting on a 40% drop in energy consumption, two-thirds of which will be attributable to energy efficiency and the remaining third to sobriety. RTE has also imagined a nuclear phase-out by 2050 with its M0 scenario, but is skeptical about the realism of its realization, as it would require the installation of all forms of renewable energies (offshore and onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, marine energies, bio-energies) at a much higher rate than the best European performances (Germany for onshore wind and solar, United Kingdom for offshore wind, see Figure 4). In two of the ADEME scenarios, the development of new nuclear power is necessary to cover the high energy needs of society: sobriety is less prevalent, societal habits are less shaken and therefore a technological bet is made to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. RTE, in its N1, N2 and N03 scenarios where new nuclear power is planned, shows that after consultation with the industry, it will not be possible to reach the implementation rates of the nuclear power plants of the 1970s and 1980s (see Figure 5). In any case, whether or not France choose to phase out nuclear power in 2050, there will be a need to accelerate the deployment of all forms of renewable energy by at least a factor of 2, and the necessary investments will be substantial (M0: €77bn/year, N1, N2, N03: €59-66bn, compared to €45bn currently).

Development of new nuclear power plants or maintenance of existing ones?But there are still uncertainties about France’s ability to really implement nuclear power at the rate imagined by RTE’s N1, N2 or N03 scenarios. Indeed, with Flamanville, the nuclear industry has suffered notable setbacks because of gigantism and will favour smaller plants of 900 MW to 1 GW maximum. However, this requires 15 years of studies to build a new model, if all goes well. Right now, only 10% of the plans have been made, which means that a new nuclear power plant will not be available for another 20 years: 2035 already seems too short as a deadline. Moreover, each generation of nuclear power plant has so far proved to be more expensive than the previous one: new nuclear power is estimated at 150 €/MWh, knowing that the cost of decommissioning is underestimated in the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). In fact, France’s decommissioning costs are estimated to be 3 to 5 times lower than those of other countries that have already decommissioned: 400 to 500 M€ per reactor, i.e. 30 billion euros in total instead of 100 to 150 billion euros. At the same time, renewable energies are constantly breaking price records, with a recent European record for solar in Portugal at 15 €/MWh! In 20 years, the price could be as low as 5 €/MWh, or 30 times less than new nuclear! Therefore, an important question can be raised: should we only maintain existing nuclear power for the time of the transition and invest massively in renewable energies or should we develop both new nuclear power and renewable energies? RTE maintains that the scenarios of a mix without nuclear power will be more expensive, but this does not seem so obvious in view of a study by Stanford University which shows that solar power coupled with battery storage would be worth 30 to 40 €/MWh today… In any case, the investments will be colossal and, if France ends up choosing to extend nuclear power, its nuclear industry will have to quickly regain credibility, especially since Westinghouse won in Poland against EDF.

Sources :

[1] « Histoire de l’énergie nucléaire en France : origine, développement du parc, futur », Connaissances des énergies, 11 janvier 2016.

[2] « Production – Nucléaire : RTE Bilan électrique 2021 », RTE.

[3] S. Joussellin, « EPR de Flamanville : où en est le chantier pharaonique de la centrale nucléaire ? », www.rtl.fr.

[4] « Exploring the energy crisis », Power Barometer, 7 juillet 2022.

[5] P. Breteau, « L’indépendance énergétique de la France grâce au nucléaire : un tour de passe-passe statistique », Le Monde.fr, 24 janvier 2022.

[6] « D’où vient l’uranium naturel importé en France ? », Connaissances des énergies, 9 août 2017.

[7] Nuclear Energy Agency et Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), « Forty years of Uranium Resources, Production and Demand in Perspective – The Red Book Retrospective », 2006.

[8] Ministère de la Transition Ecologique et Commissariat général au développement durable, « Bilan énergétique de la France pour 2019 ». Datalab, janvier 2021.

[9] Rarnol, « En France, les ressources en uranium sont-elles suffisantes pour assurer notre indépendance énergétique ? », Sfen.org, 7 octobre 2020.

[10] « Les matières radioactives », Andra Inventaire.

[11] U. Fritsche et al., Energy and Land Use – Global land outlook working paper. 2017. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24905.44648.

[12] « Site Bilans GES », ADEME.

[13] RTE, « Futurs énergétiques 2050 ». octobre 2021.

[14] A. P. Gauthier, « Le faible facteur de charge du nucléaire français », Énergie et environnement, 13 juillet 2021.

[15] « Les accidents nucléaires en France », Greenpeace France, 3 mars 2017.

[16] Agence nationale pour la gestion des déchets radioactifs (Andra), « Inventaire national des matières et déchets radioactifs ». janvier 2022.

[17] Observation de l’environnement Province Sud Nouvelle-Calédonie (OEIL), « Fiche de données environnementales de substances chimiques : le charbon et ses cendres ». janvier 2015.

[18] « Global Coal Plant Tracker », Global Energy Monitor.

[19] « Charbon ou nucléaire : concentrer ou diluer les déchets ? », Afis Science – Association française pour l’information scientifique, 20 juin 2018.

[20] L. Radisson, « Le Gouvernement limite la sous-traitance à trois niveaux dans le domaine nucléaire », Actu-Environnement, 5 juillet 2016.

[21] F. Ruffin et C. Pocréaux, « Balade nucléaire : Promenade avec Gilles, sous-traitant dans le nucléaire depuis 30 ans. L’autre face de l’atome », Fakir, n^o 99, août 2021.

[22] L. Cohen, « Statut pour les sous-traitants du nucléaire – Question écrite n° 12337 de publiée dans le JO Sénat du 26/09/2019 – page 4876 », Sénat.

[23] ADEME et Ministère de la Transition Ecologique, « Transitions 2050 : Choisir maintenant, Agir pour le climat », nov. 2021.

[24] Institut négaWatt, « La transition énergétique au coeur d’une transition sociétale : Synthèse du scénario négaWatt 2022 », oct. 2021.

63:T4bcc,

Today, it is no longer contested that human activities are causing global warming: the increased frequency of extreme weather events (heat waves, El Niño) or the Covid pandemic of the last two years are good examples. One of the mechanisms to mitigate global warming is carbon offsetting, through the purchase of carbon credits. It is commonly accepted that such credits can be acquired through the planting of trees. However, forests are not the source with the greatest potential for carbon sequestration: 55% of the CO₂ captured by photosynthesis each year worldwide is captured by the oceans. The conservation and restoration of the oceans is therefore essential to maintain acceptable living conditions on our planet.

By Pierre-Emmanuel GUILHEMSANS-VENDÉ, R&D Consultant at TNP Consultants. With the contribution of Lionel POURCHIER and Frédéric FAVRE, Founders of Blue Leaf Conservation

A very slow increase in awareness

Since March 21, 1994, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has officially recognized the existence of climate change and the responsability of humans for it. This convention has since been ratified by 195 countries, called “Parties”. In 1995, an annual meeting of the UNFCCC signatory states was established: the Conference of the Parties (COP). In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, was signed at COP 3. GHG emissions had to be reduced by 5.2% by 2020 with 1990 as the base year (for the EU, 8 %). The EU did reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 23% between 1990 and 2018 and thus exceeded its target… but at the global level, emissions increased by 67% [1]. Thus, although the phenomenon is theoretically recognized, in reality awareness is slow and, despite all the mechanisms put in place to mitigate global warming, emissions have never stopped increasing (see Figure 1).

In 2015, at COP 21, the Paris Agreement was signed. The aim is to limit global warming to below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. The objective of a net zero level by 2050 is stated, i.e. a net zero emissions balance. Why limit the increase to 2°C or even 1.5°C? There are many reasons for this, such as limiting rising sea levels, biodiversity loss, extreme weather events… and more pragmatically, +2°C is equivalent to a 0.2 to 2% drop in global income each year according to the 2014 IPCC report [2]. In 2006, Nicholas Stern had already warned that the cost of inaction against global warming would be a 5 to 20% drop in global GDP compared to only 1% for action! [3]

We must therefore drastically reduce our emissions and even aim to be at net zero by 2050 to limit global warming to below 2°C. It should also be noted that the emissions reduction target by 2030 corresponds to the global objective of the Kyoto Protocol: we must achieve in 10 years what could not be done in 30 years (with an annual reduction corresponding to the total reduction over 30 years)! This is a very ambitious goal!

What are the mechanisms to mitigate global warming?

But what are the existing solutions that would allow us to reach this objective?

To answer this question, there are currently three global mechanisms to reduce CO2 emissions:

Carbon markets

There are two types of carbon markets: compliance markets (in the EU, the Emission Trading System or ETS) and voluntary markets. Fit for 55 plans to include shipping (3.3%), road transport (17%) and buildings (14%) in the EU ETS from 2025 onwards, which would increase the percentage of EU emissions covered by the EU ETS from 45% to around 75%. [4]

National or multinational regulations/initiatives outside the EU ETS

For example, within the EU, GHG reduction targets are effectively set for sectors covered by the EU ETS but also for non-EU ETS sectors.

	Climate & Energy package 2021-2030 (2014)	Fit for 55 package (2021)
GHG emissions from 1990 to 2030	– 40 %	– 55 %
Renewable energies share in 2030	27 %	40 %
Primary energy consumption	– 27 %	– 40 %
GHG emissions in EU ETS sectors: 2005-2030	– 43 %	– 61 %
GHG emissions in non-EU ETS sectors : 2005-2030	– 30 %	– 40 %

Green bonds

Green bonds are a kind of bond issued on the financial markets by a company or a public entity in order to finance sustainable development projects. For example, the French national railway SNCF issues green bonds to finance the purchase of new trains or the maintenance of existing trains, as trains are 30 times less polluting than cars (60 times less than air travel).

Of these three mechanisms, we will focus on carbon markets, and more specifically on voluntary markets. Compliance markets will be discussed in another article.

Voluntary markets: anyone can contribute

The first voluntary markets were created in 1996, following the second IPCC report, but they only really took off in 2006, with the creation of voluntary standards[5]. The voluntary standards were inspired by the requirements of Kyoto certification (JI/CDM), adapting them to reduce the time and cost of certification. They were created to provide assurance, transparency, and credibility to voluntary market credits. There are 14 main voluntary standards identified by Ecosystem MarketPlace: Verra, GS, ACR, CAR, CARB, Plan Vivo, ProClima, Climate Forward, ART TREES, CDM, City Forest Credits, Coalition for Rainforest Nations, EcoRegistry, Global Carbon Council. But in reality, two of these standards accounted for the majority of sales in 2021: Verra and GS.

. The objective of voluntary markets is to reduce GHG emissions by offering an alternative to compliance markets, which are accessible to a limited number of actors. Theyr are based on a voluntary approach: there is no obligation, and anyone can contribute. Only one mechanism is used: the financing of offset projects.

These projects can reduce GHG emissions (more efficient and/or low-carbon technology, such as hydrogen buses) or involve sequestration: for example, planting trees, using CO2 as a refrigerant, or burying it in the ground. All the categories of offset projects can be found in Figure 2. However, before being able to offset (or contribute, a term that has become very fashionable lately) and to respect the ARC principle (Avoid, Reduce, Compensate) as much as possible, the purchaser must first carry out a carbon assessment of its GHG emissions and take actions to reduce its GHG emissions. Only then will it be legitimate in his offsetting approach: otherwise, this is called greenwashing (see Figure 3).

The voluntary market, with more than 3,600 projects since its inception [6], has been growing steadily, particularly over the last three years. In 2021, the annual value of the market exceeded one billion euros for the first time in its history and even peaked at 1.985 billion euros

The original currency here is the dollar, but as the parity between euro and dollar is currently around one, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the recent complete shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline by Russia’s Gazprom, the choice has been made here to put everything in euros.

. This is a great evolution of the market, as the second largest capitalization occurred in 2008 (2020 being only third). The cumulative size and value of the market from its inception to the end of 2021 is 1.982 Gt of avoided GHG emissions and eight billion euros, according to Ecosystem Marketplace, with a quarter of that achieved in 2021 alone [7].

In these carbon offset projects, the unit used is the carbon credit: one credit corresponds to tone metric ton of CO2 equivalent. The average price of a carbon credit was €4 in 2021, 60 % more than in 2020. This inflationary trend in the voluntary market will most likely continue and even increase as demand is expected to exceed supply by 2025. The most popular projects are related to forestry and land use (see Figure 2), accounting for more than 46 % of traded volumes and 67 % of market value in 2021. However, renewable energy projects have been gaining momentum since 2019, with equivalent or even higher volumes and sharply rising prices – +109% from 2020 to 2021 – whereas forestry projects are showing little change: +7% from 2020 to 2021. The majority of projects (65% in 2021) involve the reforestation, restoration or safeguarding of forests: these can be called green carbon credits. According to Ecosystem Marketplace, these carbon credits sell for around €5.80 each. As an individual, this type of carbon credit is easily accessible via several online platforms such as EcoTree, Olive Gaea, Coforest, MyTree or 8 Billion Trees, at prices that are nonetheless much higher and variable (€1.67 to €36 per tree and €11 to €36 per credit, depending on the type of tree, its geolocation and whether it lives 20 years or a century and beyond).

Blue carbon credits: a very promising market

Green carbon credits are thus the most developed form of carbon offset and the best known by the general public, and often synonymous with greenwashing. However, they are not the source with the greatest potential for carbon sequestration: 55% of the CO2 captured by photosynthesis each year in the world is captured by the oceans, hence the name blue carbon. Moreover, coastal ecosystems (mangroves, seagrass beds and tidal marshes), while covering only 0.2% of the world’s ocean surface, alone store 46.9% of this blue carbon in ocean sediments. These ecosystems have a carbon sequestration rate 30 to 50 times higher than that of forests [8]. Nevertheless, until now, blue carbon has been under-exploited, with only a few projects resulting from the protection of mangroves.

It is in this context that the start-up BlueLeaf Conservation (BLC) [9], founded by Lionel POURCHER and Frédéric FAVRE, and partner of TNP since April 2022, is playing a role. BLC is currently developing a pilot project to monitor Posidonia meadows in the Bay of Cannes in collaboration with the NGO Nature Dive – which plants Posidonia meadows and participates in awareness-raising and education on the subject –,along with the city, urban area and trust of Cannes. The idea is to be able to determine a model linking hectares of Posidonia with tons of CO2 and then certify this methodology via the French low carbon standard. Between 0 and 15 m, the monitoring of seagrass beds could be done via satellite (beyond that, between 15 and 40 m, there are problems of luminosity). In addition, there is a scientific obstacle to the development of a generalizable satellite recognition tool (depending on the coastline studied, there will be a multifactorial variation in the image to be analyzed).

The methodology approved via the French low carbon standard could lead to the delivery of carbon credits, made up of 80% for the protection of the existing meadows and 20% for restoration.

It is necessary to mobilize and federate stakeholders to ensure the financing of conservation and restoration projects for marine ecosystems. These potential stakeholders include private companies, but also Green Climate Funds, international donors, states, and local authorities. For the moment, organizations and governments are reluctant to invest in marine conservation projects in the absence of a clear and proven carbon footprint methodology. Moreover, there is no consensus on a single voluntary standard that would allow certification costs to be lowered by volume effect, and thus lower the cost of blue carbon credits and make them more attractive. Lionel proposes the creation of an online platform, linked to a new entity named EverSea, to connect the various stakeholders, encourage project financing, facilitate the process of carbon credit certification, and provide access to tools and methods for monitoring marine ecosystems. On the one hand, NGOs and marine area managers will be able to find marine ecosystem monitoring services (combination of different techniques) and carbon credit certification services. On the other hand, companies wishing to mitigate their CO2 emissions as part of their CSR policy will be able to offset their emissions by purchasing blue carbon credits directly on the platform and transparently monitor the results of the projects they finance through this mechanism. This transparent monitoring will be guaranteed thanks to blockchain technology.

Theoretically, the offset mechanism proposed by EverSea is virtuous and goes in the right direction, by proposing to monetize ecosystems that have been highly damaged until now because they were wrongly considered renewable, infinite and without interest. In practice, EverSea will have to deal with many climat hazards: ocean acidification, rising sea levels, increased land-based flooding and hurricanes that can damage mangroves and salt marshes… All these phenomena will jeopardize the survival of these ocean assets. However, we must encourage the proliferation of companies involved in the conservation and restoration of terrestrial and marine biodiversity, by promoting the sustainability of their business models. This will require banks to take global warming into account in their financing and insurance risk management. At the same time, companies will have to reduce their carbon footprints, by steering their ESG policies through an internal carbon price or by making green investments, for example through Time for the Planet with its climate dividends. These notions of climate dividends and internal carbon price will be the subject of a future article.

Sources

[1] “’Fit for 55’: un nouveau cycle de politiques européennes pour le climat”, RPUE – Représentation Permanente de la France auprès de l’Union européenne, July 15, 2021.

[2] GIEC, “Changements climatiques : rapport de synthèse”, 2014.

[3] N. Stern, “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, Oct. 2006.

[4] “Fit for 55 : la Commission européenne revoit l’ensemble de sa politique climat à l’aune de sa nouvelle ambition pour 2030”, Citepa, July 15, 2021.

[5] ADEME, “La compensation volontaire : démarches et limites”, June 2012.

[6] “Carbon Credit Projects & Transactions”, Trove Intelligence. https://trove-intelligence.com

[7] Ecosystem MarketPlace Insights Brief, “The Art of Integrity: State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2022 Q3”, August 2022.

[8] C. M. Duarte, I. J. Losada, I. Hendriks, I. Mazarrasa, and N. Marba, “The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation”, Nature Climate Change, October 29, 2013.

[9] L. Pourchier and F. Favre, “Blue Leaf Conservation website”. https://blueleafconservation.com/

64:Ta68,

Across the various jurisdictions there is an avalanche of sustainability & ESG & Climate reporting & disclosure requirements heading towards both financial and nonfinancial corporates.

These firms have not only to collect and process a lot of new information to fill in these new disclosures but also in number of areas have to adjust their internal processes and strategies to match the expectations & requirements that come with these new reporting frameworks. Examples of such attention areas include attention to carbon footprint measurement and management, forward looking Climate Scenario analysis and Net Zero strategy.

For banks these new disclosures on one hand represent a lot of effort to comply with but on the other hand also provide an opportunity to tap into this new source of information on their large customers that will become available as BAU and will help banks to better understand the sustainability related risks & opportunities embedded in their portfolios and large customers.

Adlen Bouchenafa – Partner, Director of Substainability – TNP Consultants
Peter Plochan– Senior Community Advisor – Qorus
Clotilde Bouchet – Community Leader – Qorus
Elena Leonardi – Head of Group Substainability – Banca Generali (Italy)
Patrick de Cambourg – Chair, EFRAG
Anne-Claire Ducrocq – Head of ESG Reporting – BNP Paribas

65:T58e,

You took part in a TNP University class and we need your feedback!

Over the course of a week, you’ve taken part in numerous workshops, presentations and personalised coaching sessions. In just a few minutes, share your feelings, comments and suggestions for future classes.

Thank you for taking the time!

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How much is a cost item worth in a company’s industrial plan if it does not exist today but will become permanent starting from 2028?

\n\n\n\n

The ETS2 introduces a mandatory price on CO₂ emissions for transport and buildings, sectors that have so far been excluded from the European system.

\n\n\n\n

The deferral to 2028 gives more time, but it does not change the substance: the earlier companies start measuring their exposure, the lower the cost of adapting will be. For road fleets, estimates already point to €6,000 per vehicle per year. For the sector as a whole, this means around €3 billion in additional costs in Italy alone.

\n\n\n\n

Download the position paper to gain a clear, strategic perspective on EU carbon market expansion in transport and buildings.

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GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as semaglutide (Ozempic®/Wegovy®) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro®), are a class of peptide drugs that mimic the naturally occurring GLP-1 hormone. They help regulate blood glucose, slow digestion and reduce appetite. Originally developed for type 2 diabetes, their dramatic weight-loss effect turned them into the fastest-scaling drug class in pharma history, despite being structurally complex peptides that are hard to mass-produce.

Download our position paper now and discover how GLP-1 receptor agonists became the fastest-scaling drug class in pharma history, and what it takes to produce these complex peptides at scale. Happy reading!

\n\n\n\n

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All you need to know about the CNIL, the French Data Protection authority, and its activities during the important year 2020.

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